When is the BoJ rate decision and how could it affect USD/JPY?

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Early on Friday, around 03:00 AM GMT, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce the ordinary monetary policy meeting decisions taken after a two-day brainstorming. Following the rate decision, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will attend the press conference, around 06:00 AM GMT, to convey the logic behind the latest policy moves.

The Japanese central bank is widely expected to keep the short-term interest rate target at -0.1% while directing 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields with the bank of +/-0.50%.

As today’s BoJ monetary policy meeting is the last for Governor Haruhilo Kuroda, who fetched the Asian major from the jaws of deflation during a decade-long fight with deflation, the monetary policy announcements are crucial for the USD/JPY traders to watch.

Although the BOJ isn’t expected to offer any change in its monetary policy, the latest hawkish moves of the major central banks and the inflation fear in Japan, as well as receding real wages, highlight today’s BOJ as the key event. Also increasing the importance of the BOJ announcements are the chatters over Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last dovish shot and welcome notes of the incoming Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Ahead of the event, FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik said,

No changes are expected in this March meeting. Market participants anticipate the interest rate will be held at -0.1% while the Yield Curve Control (YCC) will maintain the current cap of 0.5%. A policy shift by Kuroda in his last meeting would be a shocker, and he usually aims to avoid introducing too much noise.

How could it affect the USD/JPY?

USD/JPY remains depressed around 136.00, extending the previous day’s losses amid broad US Dollar weakness and downbeat Treasury bond yields, ahead of the key BoJ announcements.

Japanese policymakers have already jostled with the expectations of a major move to alter the ultra-easy monetary policy. However, the recent announcement of bond-buying and talks of the town supporting the official push for higher rates in late 2023 seem to challenge the USD/JPY buyers. It should be noted, however, that the BoJ’s play of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) will be crucial to observe during today’s monetary policy releases.

In a case where Kuroda manages to pave the way for future rate hikes, either via the alteration of the YCC band or dumping the YCC ultimately, the USD/JPY could extend its latest U-turn from the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 137.50.

Alternatively, an absence of no moves and the policymakers’ support the easy money could recall the USD/JPY buyers. However, the rebound will then wait for the US jobs report for clear directions.

Key Notes

Bank of Japan Preview: Kuroda’s and ultra-loose policy farewell

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears are moving in ahead of BoJ

USD/JPY eyes a break below 136.00 as investors digest Fed’s rate hike fears, BoJ policy eyed

About BoJ Rate Decision

BoJ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Japan. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the JPY. Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view of the Japanese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is negative, or bearish.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold bounces off weekly low; Fed hike bets and modest USD recovery keep upside limited

Gold recovers slightly from the weekly low, around the $4,100 neighborhood, though the upside potential seems limited amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. Inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Furthermore, a modest US Dollar recovery from a near three-week low could contribute to capping bullion.

Zcash's bullish reversal eyes $1,698 peak on NU7 upgrade

Zcash (ZEC) shows signs of bullish recovery above $1,200 on Wednesday, following a 9% rebound the previous day linked to the upcoming NU7 upgrade. Blockworks released a Zcash holders report on Tuesday, highlighting steady network growth. The technical outlook for ZEC is bullish, with bulls eyeing an extended rally toward $1,698.

US – Midterm update: Pre-election tail risk scenarios

With two weeks until the US midterm elections on 3 November, early voting has already opened in more than 40 states. Prediction markets are broadly unchanged since we published our Midterm update, 13 October. The prediction market Polymarket continues to see Democrats winning both chambers as the most likely outcome, with a 62.5% probability.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.