INR: New CPI series and RBI stance – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank analysts explain that India’s new CPI series shows January inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, back within the RBI’s 2–6% target band. The reweighted basket reduces food’s share and should damp volatility. With inflation contained and growth supported by fiscal policy and trade deals, RBI is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%.

Inflation reweighting and policy implications

"January CPI rose 2.8% yoy in the new CPI series with 2024 as the base year vs 1.3% in December under the old series with the base year of 2014."

"Under the new CPI series, inflation returned to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range of 2-6% for the first time since August 2025."

"The reweighing should reduce overall volatility and be less susceptible to sharp swings in food prices owing to the weather."

"On monetary policy, the RBI is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at the next meeting on 8 April."

"Inflation is expected to remain contained near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold advances to $4,200 amid retreating USD; Fed hike bets to cap further gains

Gold builds on its modest intraday move up and hits a fresh daily high around the $4,200 neighborhood during the Asian session. The US Dollar retreats from its highest level since April 2025 amid some profit-taking, offering support to the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and escalating Middle East conflicts could limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck.

Cardano: Retail support wanes as ADA tests a make-or-break level

Cardano price is up nearly 2% at press time on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2302 and a near-term rising support trendline at $0.2264. ADA is losing retail demand in the derivatives market as its futures Open Interest declines and funding rates flip negative.

Indian Rupee gains further on RBI’s fresh measures to lower US Dollar’s demand

The Indian Rupee extends the Monday’s advance against the US Dollar on Tuesday, driven by the announcement of fresh Reserve Bank of India’s US Dollar-related measures to shore up the domestic currency. In the opening session, the USD/INR pair tumbles 0.6% to near 95.00, the lowest level seen in over a month.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?