February month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may ease to 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis versus the 3.7% prior whereas Employment Change could rise by 48.5K versus the previous contraction of 11.5K. Further, the Participation Rate is expected to improve to 66.6% versus 66.5% prior level.
Adding importance to the 00:30 GMT is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bulletin for the fourth quarter (Q4).
Considering the RBA policymakers’ struggle to defend the hawkish bias, as well as the fresh banking crisis and easing inflation clues, today’s Aussie jobs report become crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Ahead of the event, FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik mentioned
An upbeat report could help it recover some ground, although the sour sentiment extends throughout the different sessions, the bounce could be short-lived, and the pair would resume its decline once the dust settles. A strong static resistance area comes in at around 0.6710, where the pair topped a couple of times this week.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD licks its wounds around 0.6620 after falling the most in a week drowned by the Credit Suisse turmoil the previous day. The Aussie pair’s latest moves could be linked to the major policymakers’ rush to placate the financial market fears.
Although the pre-data anxiety probes AUD/USD bears amid hopes of upbeat Aussie data, the risk barometer pair is likely to remain depressed, after showing an initial reaction to the actual outcome, unless witnessing too optimistic Aussie employment numbers. It should be noted that the RBA Bulletin must avoid dovish words to defend the pair’s latest corrective bounce.
The reason for the AUD/USD pair’s likely weakness could be linked to comparatively more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets despite the latest financial market fears, as well as the broad weakness in the pair due to its risk-barometer status.
Technically, a U-turn from the 1.5-month-old resistance line, around 0.6670 by the press time, keeps the AUD/USD bears hopeful of revisiting the monthly low of 0.6564.
Key Notes
AUD/USD struggles to extend recovery above 0.6620 ahead of Australian Employment
Australian Employment Preview: Job creation to add pressure on the RBA
AUD/USD Forecast: Risk aversion hits the Aussie; Australian employment numbers unlikely to help
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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