Retail Sales Overview
Early Wednesday, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for March month at 01:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests an intact seasonally adjusted monthly print of 0.2% MoM, suggesting a reduction in the pressure for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to act faster to tame inflation woes.
Given the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest hawkish surprise despite recently softer Aussie inflation data and the mixed comments from the RBA officials, not to forget the challenges to sentiment, today’s Aussie Retail Sales data appears crucial for the AUD/USD traders.
How could it affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD stays pressured around 0.6650, consolidating the Reserve Bank of Australia-inspired gains by retreating from a one-week high. In doing so, the Aussie pair bears the burden of the sour sentiment and the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events.
That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, amid fears of comparatively higher rates in Australia than the US, may also seek validation from today’s Aussie Retail Sales data. Hence, recovery in the key statistics may allow the AUD/USD buyers to extend the latest run-up to cross the immediate technical hurdle while a negative surprise, which is less likely, could recall the Aussie pair buyer by highlighting the hawkish Fed concerns.
It should be noted, however, that the Aussie data may have a knee-jerk reaction for the AUD/USD pair as traders are more interested in the US ADP Employment Change for April and the ISM Services PMI for the, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements.
Technically, a daily closing beyond a three-month-old descending resistance line, around 0.6720 by the press time, becomes necessary for AUD/USD buyers to retake control.
Key Notes
AUD/USD pares RBA-inspired gains below 0.6700 ahead of Australia Retail Sales, Fed
AUD/USD Forecast: Upside limited after being unable to hold above 0.6700
About Australian Retail Sales
The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
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