When are the Australian retail sales/ trade data and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Australian retail sales/trade balance overview

While early indications towards a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) makes the bigger event for the Aussie traders, monthly releases of retail sales and trade balance data slated for release at 11:30 am Syd/8: 30 am Sing/HK and 01:30 GMT on Tuesday could offer intermediate moves to the AUD/USD pair..

Australia's seasonally-adjusted monthly retail sales are expected to rise +0.2% in March versus the previous reading of +0.8% growth. On the other hand, the consensus forecasts are calling for Australia's March month balance of trade to flash a soft figure of $4.3 billion AUD, down from the last reading of AUD 4,801 million. The Australian exports in February last came in at +0.0%, while Imports for the same period arrived at -1.0%.

ANZ expects soft readings from the Aussie data as its report says:

We expect 0.2% increase in nominal terms in the month (market: 0.2%) and a 0.7% increase in the quarter in real terms (market: 0.3%). Trade data, also at 11:30am, are expected to show a smaller surplus in March than the $4.8bn recorded February: we expect $4bn (market $4.5bn). 

Elsewhere, Westpac was of opinion that:

Retail sales were stronger than expected in Feb, up 0.8%mth, 3.2%yr. A more modest rise seems likely in March, with the median forecast 0.2%mth, Westpac 0.1%mth, 3.2%yr. 

Australia’s trade surplus in February was a record high A$4.8bn, capping a steep improvement since late 2017. A pullback from such heights seems very likely, with consensus A$4.5bn and Westpac on A$4.2bn. This forecast is premised on export earnings -0.6% (iron ore shipments interrupted by storms but coal volumes up) and imports +1% (rebounding from the Feb fall).

How could they affect the AUD/USD?

While recently renewed doubts over the US-China trade deal and downbeat data from Australia have already heightened fears of the RBA’s rate-cut, traders will take a serious note of the scheduled data if negative outcomes arrive.

Technically, the AUD/USD pair can take rest around 0.6970 area including late-January 2016 lows in case of soft data but further weakness beneath the same support could drag the quote towards the year 2016 bottom near 0.6820. Alternatively, 0.7030 and 0.7055 can entertain buyers during upbeat release ahead of shifting their attention to 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 0.7090.

Key Notes

AUD/USD struggles around 0.6980 as US tariffs on China can take place from Friday, RBA awaited

AUD/USD Analysis: RBA's monetary policy decision coming next

About the Australian retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

About the Australian trade balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.