When is the German Prelim GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Germany, the largest economy in the euro-zone, will publish its preliminary Gross Domestic Product report for Q4 at 7:00 GMT today. 

The data is expected to show that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.8 percent, following a 1.1 percent expansion in the third quarter. 

Germany flirting with recession

That German economy could be staring at recession is easily explained by the fact that it is heavily dependent on the global demand conditions. 
Germany's exports of goods and services make up more than 45 percent of its GDP and more importantly, the likes of IMF have recently warned about a deeper global slowdown in 2019. 

Further, the IFO has calculated that German GDP could be permanently lower by 0.2 to 0.5% in the long-run, with larger negative effects in the short-term, according to BBC. 

As a result, German recession fears seem to have gripped markets. This is evident from the recent drop in the German bond yields (10-year below 0.10 percent). 

A weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP reading would bolster these fears, sending the EUR to levels below the January low of 1.1215. 

On the other hand, a better-than-expected reading could alleviate concerns of a slowdown in the Eurozone's largest economy, allowing for a minor corrective bounce in EUR/USD

The pair is currently trading at 1.1278, having clocked a low of 1.1249 earlier today. The news that Trump is considering a 60-day extension of China tariff deadline could keep risk assets better bid and cushion the impact of (potential) below-forecast German GDP reading. 

About German Preliminary GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD struggling at the lows ahead of US GDP

EUR/USD is trading in the low 1.1100s, consolidating its losses. Markets are stalling ahead of the all-important US GDP report which carries high expectations. Some suspect a "sell the fact" response in reaction to an OK number.


GBP/USD recaptures 1.2900 amid the Brexit impasse, ahead of US GDP

GBP/USD is trading slightly above 1.2900, recovering the lost ground after hitting two-month lows. The Brexit impasse weighs as the main parties have not made progress. The anticipation to US GDP limits movements.


USD/JPY oscillates in a range above mid-111.00s, key US GDP report awaited

The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the intraday bounce and quickly retreated around 15-20 pips from daily tops touched during the Asian session.


US First Quarter GDP Preview: Reasons to be cheerful

US economic growth forecast to be stable in the first quarter. Improved consumer attitudes and retail sales give reason for optimism. Labor market key to economic growth.

Read more

Gold climbs to 1-1/2 week tops, back above $1280 level ahead of US GDP

Gold edged higher on the last trading day of the week and jumped back above $1280 level, just above over one-week tops set in the previous session.

Gold News