Weaker lira trend has resumed following a shift away from orthodox policy settings as the USD/TRY pair rose from 8.2472 to 8.2747 during April. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the Turkish lira to post new record lows in the year ahead.
Inflation is still expected to ease, creating a window for rate cuts
“Renewed lira weakness has increased upside risks to the inflation outlook, and should make the CBRT cautious over reversing rate hikes at the current juncture. When the opportunity arises, the CBRT is likely to lower rates sooner than under the previous leadership.”
“Inflation is still expected to ease in the second half of this year creating a window for rate cuts. We have been pencilling in at least a reversal of the last 200bps rate hike which could start as soon as this quarter.”
“We do not expect recent lira stability to last and expect it to fall to new record lows in the year ahead.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.