USD/TRY Price Analysis: $13.68 appears tough nut to crack for sellers

USD/TRY remains pressured around intraday low, prints three-day downtrend.
50-SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement limits immediate declines but bearish MACD hints at further weakness.
Three-day-old resistance line restricts recovery moves ahead of February’s top.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/TRY prints mild intraday losses around $13.80, down 0.20% on a day while heading into Tuesday’s European session.

That said, the bearish MACD signals and sustained trading below a 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of January-February upside keep sellers hopeful to conquer the immediate support near $13.80, comprising 50-SMA and 61.8% Fibo.

Even son a convergence of the 100-SMA and an upward sloping trend line from late January becomes strong support to challenge USD/TRY bears around $13.68.

Should the quote drops below $13.68, a downward trajectory towards $13.55 and February’s low near $13.28 can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $13.97 before challenging the falling trend line from Thursday, near $14.03.

In a case where USD/TRY bulls cross the $14.03 hurdle, a gradual run-up towards February’s peak of $14.66 can’t be ruled out.

USD/TRY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD trims gains, back to around 1.3500

GBP/USD now surrenders part of the earlier move to multi-week peaks around 1.3530 and comes close to the 1.3500 support on Monday. Cable’s uptick comes in tandem with decent gains in the Greenback, always amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD deflates to 1.1540

EUR/USD begins the week on the back foot, retesting the 1.1540 zone as the NA session draws to a close. The better tone in the US Dollar weighs on the risk complex, sparking the daily correction in spot, always on the back of unabated effervescence in the Middle East.

Gold clings to daily gains; focus is back to $4,400

Gold picks up pace and advances past the $4,350 mark per troy ounce, adding to Friday’s gains. That said, the yellow metal keeps pushing harder despite the better tone in the US Dollar, and is closely following the Fed’s interest-rate outlook as well as developments in the Middle East

Bitcoin vs Gold Overview: XAU tests breakout, BTC slides as Trump claims Iran negotiations

The cryptocurrency market shows signs of trimming gains accrued last week as Bitcoin (BTC) slides below $65,000 at the time of writing on Monday. Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish outlook, hovering above $4,350.

US Payrolls miss – RBA on deck tomorrow

It would be remiss of me not to kick off this morning’s report with a rundown of last Friday’s US jobs report, which was a belter. Headline payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations of an 80,000 gain. The BLS noted that May was revised down by 66,000 (from 129,000) and June by 37,000 (from 57,000), resulting in combined May-June revisions of 103,000 lower than previous reports.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.