USD/JPY scope for a test of 110.25 – UOB

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

Spot could extend the correction lower to the 110.25 level in the near term, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that “the pressure is clearly on the downside and 110.75 is likely to be tested”. While the expectation was not wrong, the subsequent sharp and rapid rebound from a low of 110.74 came as a surprise. At this stage, the bounce is viewed as part of a correction even though there is scope for a test of the strong 111.80 resistance. At this stage, we do not anticipate a clear break above this level. Support is at 111.10 followed by the low near 110.75. The latter level is likely ‘safe’, at least for today”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We just shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. As highlighted, while the outlook for USD is deemed as neutral, the immediate pressure has shifted to the downside and a test of month-to-date low near 110.25 would not be surprising. Only a clear break back above 111.80 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.

Gold advances marginally; still below $3,900

Gold attempts a mild bounce and approaches the $3,900 region per troy ounce at the end of the week. The marginal recovery in the precious metal comes on the back of a vacillating mood surrounding the US Dollar along with mixed US Treasury yields following the release of US October Producer Prices.

Bitcoin just posted five straight losing weeks, and the storm may not be over yet

Bitcoin is struggling to find support, slipping below $70,000 as multiple headwinds threaten to push the Crypto King lower. The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize, with persistent selling pressure and widespread liquidations instead reinforcing the “Rektober” narrative.

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings to guide investors

Fed minutes may add to hawkish tone as bets of 50-bps hike grow. Nvidia to report earnings as bar to impress high after spy scandal. Trade and geopolitics to be focal point of Trump-Xi summit.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.