Japan’s GDP grew 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2025 vs 0.4% expected
The Japanese economy expanded 0.1% over the quarter in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, the preliminary report published by the Cabinet Office showed on Monday. This reading marks a reversal from a 0.7% contraction recorded in Q3, though it fell short of market expectations for a 0.4%.
On an annualized basis, Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 0.2%, compared with forecasts of 1.6% and the third quarter’s downwardly revised 2.6% decline.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading just above the 153.00 mark, up nearly 0.55% for the day.
(This story was corrected on February 16 at 07:51 GMT to say that Japan's third quarter GDP contracted by a revised 2.6% on an annualize basis in the third quarter, not 2.3% reportedly previously)
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
