USD/JPY regains poise with recovery in US yields, focus on China’s trade data

  • USD/JPY charted dragon fly doji on Thursday. 
  • Recovery in yields put a bid under the USD. 
  • Upbeat China data could boost risk sentiment. 

USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.53, having charted a higher low at 107.86 on Thursday.

The pair found bids below 108.00 and closed the day with marginal gains at 108.49, leaving a dragon fly doji – a bullish reversal pattern – in its wake, as US treasury yields recovered a major chunk of losses seen following the US Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony to Congress. 

Notably, the two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks short-term interest rate expectations, rose from 1.78% to 1.88%, having dropped nearly 14 basis points from 1.94% on Wednesday. 

The recovery is both yields and USD/JPY indicates the markets are probably done pricing in Fed easing. After all, the two-two-years yield is still down almost 80 basis points on a year-to-date basis, despite having recovered from the recent low of 1.68%. 

With long-tail doji on the daily chart and recovery in yields, the USD/JPY is again looking north. 

A weekly high of 108.99 could come into play today if China’s export and import numbers blow past expectations, alleviating concerns of weak global demand and deeper slowdown in China and triggering a risk-on rally in equities

Apart from headline figure, the market would be interesting in seeing if China’s surplus with the US has dropped. An uptick would irk Washington, possibly complicating negotiations between the two nations. 

Japanese industrial production data is also scheduled for release at 04:30 and may influence JPY pairs. 

Technical levels


Today last price 108.53
Today Daily Change 0.04
Today Daily Change % 0.04
Today daily open 108.49
Daily SMA20 108.06
Daily SMA50 108.86
Daily SMA100 110.11
Daily SMA200 110.8
Previous Daily High 108.54
Previous Daily Low 107.86
Previous Weekly High 108.64
Previous Weekly Low 107.53
Previous Monthly High 108.8
Previous Monthly Low 106.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 108.28
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 108.12
Daily Pivot Point S1 108.06
Daily Pivot Point S2 107.62
Daily Pivot Point S3 107.38
Daily Pivot Point R1 108.73
Daily Pivot Point R2 108.97
Daily Pivot Point R3 109.41



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