EUR/USD retreats as US jobs data and hawkish Fed dampen rate-cut bets
- EUR/USD slips as 130K payroll gain and 4.3% unemployment rate highlight US labor resilience.
- Markets scale back March cut bets, shifting easing expectations toward year-end.
- Hawkish remarks from Jeffrey Schmid back Fed stance despite earlier job revisions.
The EUR/USD pair retreats below 1.1900 on Wednesday as the Greenback stages a recovery on a strong jobs report in the United States, which underscored the strength of the economy. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1885, down 0.07%.
Euro edges lower after solid US jobs data and hawkish Fed rhetoric dampen rate-cut expectations
Earlier, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 130K workers to the workforce, according to January’s Nonfarm Payrolls data. The report indicated that private companies accounted for most of the hiring, adding 172K positions, whereas the US government reduced its workforce by 42K.
Following the release of the data, EUR/USD dipped to its daily low of 1.1833 as the report showed that the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3%, below the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2026 estimate of 4.5%.
The BLS also released its annual revision of Nonfarm employment data, revealing that previous estimates of job growth were significantly overstated.
The March 2025 figure was cut by 898K jobs, reflecting a significant shift in employment trends. Job growth for 2025 is now 181K, down sharply from the previous estimate of 584K, indicating weaker hiring than expected.
Consequently, investors slashed bets for a March rate cut, as expectations for a hold are at around 95%, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Money markets had priced in nearly 51 basis points of easing towards the year-end, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
Hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also weighed on the EUR/USD pair. He said, “With inflation still running hot, it appears that demand is outpacing supply across much of the economy.” Schmid added that “Further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer.”
In Europe, the docket was empty, yet previous comments by European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers suggested that inflation is controlled and disregarded recent Euro’s strength, aligning with President Christine Lagarde.
At the ECB’s monetary policy decision press conference, Lagarde said that they already accounted for the Euro’s strength.
What’s in the calendar in Europe and the US?
The Eurozone (EZ) economic docket will feature speeches by ECB officials Mario Cipollone, Philip Lane and Joachim Nagel. In the US, the schedule will feature Initial Jobless Claims figures for the week ending February 7, housing data and speeches by Fed policymakers Lorie Logan and Stephen Miran.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.11% | -0.80% | 0.11% | -0.74% | -0.08% | 0.42% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | -0.07% | -1.02% | -0.06% | -0.91% | -0.25% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | 0.07% | -0.96% | 0.00% | -0.85% | -0.19% | 0.31% | |
| JPY | 0.80% | 1.02% | 0.96% | 0.94% | 0.08% | 0.78% | 1.26% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | 0.06% | -0.01% | -0.94% | -0.85% | -0.18% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.85% | -0.08% | 0.85% | 0.67% | 1.14% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.25% | 0.19% | -0.78% | 0.18% | -0.67% | 0.49% | |
| CHF | -0.42% | -0.24% | -0.31% | -1.26% | -0.30% | -1.14% | -0.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical outlook: EUR/USD peaks around 1.1900 as sellers moved in
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1877. The simple moving averages slope upward beneath the spot, preserving a bullish tone. A reference line around 1.1751 acts as dynamic support. RSI (14) prints at 56.68, above the 50 mid-line, signaling firm but measured momentum.
The rising trend line from 1.1585 underpins the structure, offering support near 1.1818. A descending trend line from 1.2082 caps advances, with resistance set at 1.1916. A daily close above resistance would strengthen the recovery, while a drop below trend-line support could see a retracement toward the 1.1751 moving-average area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on February 11 at 20:55 GMT to fix a mispelling in the name of Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
