USD/INR hits fresh monthly high as US Dollar rallies amid US-Iran war
- The Indian Rupee falls sharply to near 91.80 against the US Dollar amid the US-Iran war.
- Middle East tensions have spiked the oil prices and triggered risk-off market sentiment.
- India’s Q4 GDP registers a strong 7.8% growth against estimates of 7.2%.
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair rising 0.5% to near 91.80 amid sour market sentiment and surging oil prices due to a brutal war between the United States (US) and Iran.
S&P 500 futures trade sharply lower, and Asian stock markets plunge on Monday, demonstrating a risk-off market sentiment.
The oil prices soar following reports of two attacks on tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran war. WTI futures on the NYMEX are up over 4% to near $70, the highest level seen in over seven months. Currencies from countries like India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs remain highly sensitive to changes in oil prices.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.95% | 1.06% | 0.66% | 0.24% | 1.01% | 0.49% | 0.61% | |
| EUR | -0.95% | 0.11% | -0.28% | -0.70% | 0.06% | -0.46% | -0.35% | |
| GBP | -1.06% | -0.11% | -0.40% | -0.82% | -0.05% | -0.56% | -0.43% | |
| JPY | -0.66% | 0.28% | 0.40% | -0.40% | 0.36% | -0.15% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | 0.70% | 0.82% | 0.40% | 0.77% | 0.27% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -1.01% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.36% | -0.77% | -0.51% | -0.39% | |
| INR | -0.49% | 0.46% | 0.56% | 0.15% | -0.27% | 0.51% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.61% | 0.35% | 0.43% | 0.02% | -0.38% | 0.39% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Over the weekend, Israel and the US military launched a series of strikes against Iran in which their 48 leaders, including top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed, according to Fox News.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated with missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military bases across the Middle East and several West Asian countries.
Meanwhile, Tehran has announced Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as its interim leader after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On the domestic front, India’s Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has surprised markets after registering a 7.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) growth, faster than estimates of 7.2%, but slower than 8.2% in the third quarter of 2025.
After strong Q4 numbers, India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has revised GDP growth for the entire Financial Year (FY) 2026-27 to 7%-7.4% from the 6.8%-7.2% projected last month.
During the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% higher to near 97.85 amid a risk-off mood. This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released on Friday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR jumps to near 91.80
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USD/INR trades significantly higher to near 91.80 on Monday, the highest level seen in a month. The pair demonstrates a mild bullish bias as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which is starting to edge higher again after a period of consolidation.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps vertically to 65.00 after consolidating in the 40.00-60.00 range for a month, hinting at the onset of a fresh bullish momentum.
As long as the pair stays above the 20-day EMA, the odds remain high that it could revisit the all-time high of 92.50. On the downside, the 20-day EMA around 91.05 forms first support, with a deeper pullback exposing the late-February trough at 90.60. A daily close below 90.60 would negate the current bullish bias and shift focus toward the 90.25 zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
