Geopolitics remaking world economy in real time – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Rabobank analysts argue that, with geopolitics reshaping the world economy in real time, upcoming macro data are of secondary importance. Still, the bank lists a full week of releases, including global PMIs, Eurozone CPI, Australian GDP, US ISM surveys, the Fed’s Beige Book, and US non-farm payrolls, with unemployment seen at 4.3% and 60k jobs.

Heavy data slate overshadowed by geopolitics

"Monday: With geopolitical events again remaking the world economy in real time, lagging datapoints are a virtual irrelevance. Nevertheless, today brings NZ filled jobs, global PMIs, US manufacturing ISM, AU GDP partials, German retail sales and UK house prices."

"Tuesday: Japan jobless figures and Q4 capital spending are out, followed by Aussie building approvals, Spain employment data, and Eurozone CPI for February. RBA Governor Bullock is scheduled to speak."

"Wednesday: Aussie Q4 GDP is released, global services PMIs follow, then it’s the ADP employment survey and the ISM services index in the USA. The Fed’s Beige Book will be released and BoC Governor Macklem is speaking."

"Thursday: Aussie trade figures are followed by French industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the Challenger job cuts series and US weekly jobless claims. Christine Lagarde will be speaking."

"Friday: US non-farm payrolls and retail sales are the highlights of the day. The former is expected to reveal an unemployment rate of 4.3% and +60k new jobs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD sticks to neutral bias above 0.7100 amid cautious markets

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar stalls its modest pullback from the highest level since late July amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties. The PBOC status quo on Loan Prime Rates also weighs on the Aussie. However, bets on another RBA rate hike continue to underpin the Australian Dollar ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit.

USD/JPY eases below 157.00 amid looming intervention risks

USD/JPY is easing back below 157.00 in Asia on Monday, undermined by modest Japanese Yen strength amid looming intervention risks after Friday's BoJ rate check. A Japanese holiday also keeps traders on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East. As a result, the US Dollar pauses its pullback, limiting the pair's downside.

Gold remains depressed around $4,350 amid rate jitters, modest USD strength

Gold maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session, and currently trades around $4,350, down over 0.50% for the day. The commodity, however, holds comfortably above a six-week low, touched last Wednesday as traders await further developments around the Middle East crisis and their implications for inflation. This, in turn, would influence interest rate expectations and, in turn, drive the non-yielding bullion.

Zcash holds above $1,500 amid Grayscale ETF stock split, NU7 upgrade

Zcash is trading above $1,500 after more than 40% gains last week, driven by institutional inflows and broader crypto market recovery. Grayscale’s ZEC-focused Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) recorded $98.21 million in inflows last week, while developers focus on the NU7 upgrade to boost its private payment speed.

The week ahead: Fuel prices in focus as we lead up to key eco releases

Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday. Market stresses are concentrated in sovereign bonds, and European and US yields had another scare late on Friday, and moved higher.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.