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USD/IDR Price Analysis: Rupiah eases from $14,330 support, eyes on Bank Indonesia Rate

  • USD/IDR snaps three-day downtrend, stays pressured around weekly low.
  • BI is expected to keep monetary policy, benchmark rate unchanged.
  • Convergence of 200-DMA, seven-week-old support line restricts short-term downside.
  • MACD teases bears, clear trading above $14,450 becomes necessary for bull’s conviction.

USD/IDR struggles to extend previous three-day downtrend around the weekly bottom as the pair traders await monetary policy decision from the Bank Indonesia (BI) during early Thursday morning in Europe. That said, BI is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%.

In addition to the BI concerns, the market’s anxiety ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, expected 7.3% YoY versus 7.0% prior, also challenges the USD/IDR pair’s latest moves.

Read: US Treasury yields dwindle, S&P 500 Futures ignore Wall Street gains amid inflation anxiety

Technically, a convergence of the 200-DMA and an upward sloping trend line from late December restrict the immediate downside of USD/IDR around $14,330.

However, the MACD teases bears and can result in the pair’s further declines towards the initial 2022 lows near $14,270.

It should be observed that the USD/IDR seller’s dominance past $14,270 could highlight the December 2021 bottom of $14,140.

Alternatively, recovery moves may initially aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of December 2021 downside, around $14,385.

Though, USD/IDR bulls remain cautious until witnessing a decisive break above the $14,450 hurdle.

To sum up, bears keep reins ahead of the key catalysts, namely Bank Indonesia Rate and US inflation readings.

USD/IDR: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price14346.3
Today Daily Change-2.4000
Today Daily Change %-0.02%
Today daily open14348.7
 
Trends
Daily SMA2014356.4325
Daily SMA5014333.354
Daily SMA10014291.4975
Daily SMA20014331.277
 
Levels
Previous Daily High14393
Previous Daily Low14331.45
Previous Weekly High14441.95
Previous Weekly Low14296.45
Previous Monthly High14450.8
Previous Monthly Low14185.25
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%14354.9621
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%14369.4879
Daily Pivot Point S114322.4333
Daily Pivot Point S214296.1667
Daily Pivot Point S314260.8833
Daily Pivot Point R114383.9833
Daily Pivot Point R214419.2667
Daily Pivot Point R314445.5333

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
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