USD: Dollar weakness drives lower risk score – DBS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

DBS Group Research highlights that its FX risk score has fallen to the lowest level since late 2021, driven mainly by a weaker US Dollar in early 2026 after a 9.4% depreciation in 2025. Economists Chua Han Teng and Daisy Sharma note that concerns over US Fed independence, US exceptionalism and fiscal sustainability continue to weigh on the Dollar.

FX risk score falls on softer Dollar

"This week’s featured insight is our Asset Risks Dashboard, which track conditions and gauge risk sentiments across four key asset classes (Equities, Interest Rates, Credit, and FX). Today we focus on FX."

"The FX risk score has trended lower in early 2026 to its lowest level since late 2021."

"The increasingly benign level primarily reflects a weaker US dollar at the start of this year, having already depreciated by 9.4% in 2025."

"This continues to be due to worries surrounding the US Fed’s independence (despite the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair), investor concerns regarding US exceptionalism, long-term fiscal sustainability, and ongoing policy uncertainties."

"US funding conditions remain comfortable in the Euro and Japanese markets, although with slight tightening bias."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD holds rebound near 0.6900 on US-China trade optimism

AUD/USD holds the rebound near 0.6900 in the Asian session on Monday. Mixed China's inflation data for October fails to provide any inspiration to the Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar, but China's extension of the suspension of 24% tariffs on US goods and reduced US-Iran tensions help the Aussie pair cling to recovery gains.

USD/JPY retreat in sync with USD, appraches 158.00

USD/JPY is back in the red at the start of the week on Monday, eyeing the broad US Dollar retreat amid easing US-Iran tensions. Traders also resorting to profit-taking following the blockbuster US Nonfarm Payrolls data-led rally. US CPI report is next in focus.

Gold rises amid US-Iran peace deal hopes, softer US Dollar

Gold price recovers some lost ground above $4,020 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The prospects of diplomacy in the US-Iran conflict and weaker US Dollar (USD) boost the precious metal.

Solana: Persistent ETF outflows extend downside risk in SOL

Solana trades below $90 on Monday, ticking higher after over 3% losses below a long-term support trendline the previous day. SOL has been steadily declining over the last five weeks, aligning with five straight weekly outflows from Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Funds totaling over $150 million.

Economics week ahead

This week, attention turns to Tuesday’s CPI report, with no year-over-year readings available because of last October’s shutdown-related data gap. We expect headline and core inflation to clock 0.28% and 0.21% month-over-month, respectively. Softer core inflation would offer some relief after September’s upside surprise but should still leave our call for a December rate hike intact.

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress

The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.