USD/CHF looking for a second consecutive day of gains, clawing towards 0.8800

The USD/CHF is grinding higher to eke out a second daily high, but momentum remains thin.
The US Dollar remains steeply sold-off against the Swiss Franc.
Economic calendar data leans heavily into the US side this week, culminating in another NFP print.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The USD/CHF is continuing to climb for a second trading day, with the US Dollar (USD) getting propped up by broad-market risk-off flows rather than any specific weakness in the Swiss Franc (CHF), which is up over 3% against the USD since early November.

The USD/CHF has seen one-sided trading, closing flat or in the red for fifteen straight trading days before hitting a near-term bottom of 0.8666. With Tuesday seeing meager gains for the US Dollar, the USD/CHF is set to close with back-to-back meaningful gains since October.

US JOLTS Job Openings in October missed market forecasts, dipping to a two-and-a-half-year low of 8.733 million job postings, slipping past the forecast 9.3 million, and declining even further away from September's print of 9.35 million (revised down slightly from 9.553 million).

The US labor market remains tight, which makes it harder for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to accelerate the pace towards a rate cut cycle, and investors are ogling market data in the hopes of finding the cracks in the dataset that will signal Fed rate cuts sooner rather than later.

As it stands, markets are anticipating rate cuts from the Fed in the first half of next year, though still-high economic indicators make it hard for the Fed to execute on market hopes. On the downside, investors are walking a knife-edge when it comes to data expectations: if US economic data goes too red, too quick, a full-blown recession will be terrible for markets.

USD/CHF Technical Outlook

The USD/CHF remains steeply in the red in the medium-term despite intraday gains this week, and the US Dollar is down against the Swiss Franc looking out across 2023.

The USD/CHF saw an accelerated decline after dropping through in 0.8900 handle in November, and the pair has continued to swirl the drain ever since, shedding another 200 pips to hit chart territory near the 0.8700 handle.

The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has steadily declined through the 0.9000 major handle as long-term momentum leans into the Dollar-bearish side. The 50-day SMA is set for a bearish crossover of the 200-day SMA after the shorter moving average failed to see a bullish market shift materialize after a short-lived bullish crossover in November.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/CHF Technical Levels

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.8757
Today Daily Change	0.0025
Today Daily Change %	0.29
Today daily open	0.8732

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.8864
Daily SMA50	0.8978
Daily SMA100	0.8897
Daily SMA200	0.8965

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.8755
Previous Daily Low	0.8667
Previous Weekly High	0.8828
Previous Weekly Low	0.868
Previous Monthly High	0.9113
Previous Monthly Low	0.8685
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.8722
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.8701
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.8681
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.8629
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8592
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.8769
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.8807
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.8858

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

GBP/USD recedes from tops around 1.3450

GBP/USD holds on to moderate gains above 1.3400 the figure on Friday. Optimism surrounding the UK government’s leadership transition and expectations of further BoE tightening support the British Pound, while easing tensions in the Middle East and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.1420

EUR/USD struggles to build on Thursday's gains and trades with marginal losses near 1.1420 at the end of the week. With no major economic data due, lingering uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict keeps investors cautious, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold resumes the downside, hovers around $4,100

Gold struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound and trades in a narrow range around the $4,100 yardstick per troy ounce on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limits the precious metal’s upside, which is also under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too

US inflation report and Warsh testimony to headline the week. Dollar to dominate amid slew of other US data and Mideast tensions. Amid fresh Iran escalation, China GDP to shed light on Q2 impact. Bank of Canada not expected to follow RBNZ with rate hike.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.