USD/CHF clings to gains near 0.8100, multi-week top amid bullish USD and risk-on mood

USD/CHF sticks to a positive bias as the USD preserves its gains to a multi-month high.
A positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven CHF and contributes to the bid tone.
Rising Fed rate cut bets might cap the USD and the pair ahead of key US macro data.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CHF pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades just below the 0.8100 mark, or a nearly three-week high touched the previous day. The mixed fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of a nearly two-week-old uptrend from the 0.7880-0.7875 region.

The recent data showed that Switzerland’s export-oriented economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time in over two years and overshadowed the optimism over the US-Swiss trade deal. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets contributes to the safe-haven Swiss Franc's (CHF) relative underperformance and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) sits near its highest level since late May, touched last week, and offers additional support to spot prices. However, mixed signals from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials lifted market expectations for another rate cut in December, capping the upside for the USD. Furthermore, expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate at 0% in December might cap the USD/CHF pair.

Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for important US macro data for some meaningful impetus. Tuesday's US economic docket features the delayed US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales, along with Pending Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index, later this Tuesday. This could influence the USD price dynamics and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.

Economic Indicator

Producer Price Index (YoY)

The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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