USD/CHF approaches 0.8700 with US Inflation on horizon

USD/CHF marches toward 0.8700 as safe-haven flows to the Swiss Franc have diminished.
Investors divide over the size of Fed’s interest-rate cuts in September.
Investors await the US PPI and CPI data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT and Wednesday, respectively.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CHF pair gains to near 0.8675 in Tuesday’s European session. The Swiss Franc asset strengthens as the appeal of the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven asset diminishes due to waning risks of the United States (US) entering a recession.

Fears of a potential US recession faded after upbeat weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Also, the think tank discussed that the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July was not as bad as exhibited by sheer sell-off in global equities.

Currently, the market sentiment is cheerful with investors focusing on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be published on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the European session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher to near 103.25.

The US CPI report is expected to show that annual headline and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, decelerated by one-tenth to 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively. Monthly headline and core inflation are estimated to have risen by 0.2%.

The inflation data will provide cues about when and how much the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates this year. Currently, financial markets are divided about the size of interest-rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of a 50 basis point (bp) rate reduction is 49.5%.

Before the US CPI data, investors will focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Annual headline and core PPI are expected to have decelerated by three-tenth to 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD stays below 1.3400 after soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and stays below 1.3400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, making it difficult for the British Pound gather recovery momentum. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.1400 as markets focus on geopolitics

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1400 on Wednesday. In the absence of high-impact data releases, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caps the pair's upside. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions.

Gold extends rally as Middle East concerns intensify

Gold extends gains for the fourth consecutive day, standing comfortably above $4,100, unfazed by the risk-off market amid rising tensions in Iran and higher Oil prices. The pair has rallied nearly 2.5% so far this week and is on track for its best weekly performance in more than three months.

Australia unemployment rate set to steady at 4.4% in June, signaling strong job market

Australia will publish the June monthly employment report on Thursday at 01:30 GMT, and market participants expect a modest increase in job creation in the land Down Under. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to announce that the country added 15K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.4%, unchanged from May.

Hyperliquid, Robinhood could lead crypto’s next bull market as DeFi and TradFi converge

The next crypto bull market could be driven by the growing convergence between blockchain-based financial infrastructure and traditional finance, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a report published late Tuesday, Hougan argued that crypto may be showing early signs of a market bottom, with Bitcoin gaining 9% since July 1 even as the NASDAQ 100 declined 6%.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.