Analysts from Brown Brother Harriman like the upside in the USD/CAD and they look for a test of 1.33.
Key Quotes:
“Our informal and simple model for the Canadian dollar has three variables. Oil, interest rates, and general risk environment. Over time, the coefficient of the variables can and do change. Of the three variables, the general risk environment is the most supportive of the Canadian dollar. Between the BOJ and ECB more than $150 bln a month of central bank, credits are being created. This is one of the key factors driving interest rates down in Europe and Japan.”
“The correlation of the change of the Canadian dollar and change in oil price (front-month contract for light sweet crude) over the past 60 sessions is near 0.60. With a couple of exceptions, the correlation is as high as it has been over the past five years.”
“The 10-year interest rate differential appears to be offering better guidance for the Canadian dollar than the short-end. The US 10-year premium over Canad peaked at the end of last year near 90 bp. It retests it in late-January as the US dollar peaked against the Canadian dollar near CAD1.4700.”
“In recent sessions, demand for US dollar emerged near the five-day average, which is found at CAD1.3160 today, which currently is day's low. A break could see CAD1.31. We still like the upside, and we continue to look for a test on the CAD1.33. That area corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of this year's decline and houses the 200-day moving average.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.