USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hand holds 20-day EMA amid US-Iran war
- USD/CAD flattens at around 1.3645 as both the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar trade firmly.
- Upbeat US data and revived risk-off bets have strengthened the US Dollar.
- The CAD strengthens amid higher oil prices due to the war in the Middle East.
The USD/CAD pair trades flat at around 1.3645 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Loonie pair consolidates as the recovery move in the US Dollar (USD) after a slight correction has offset the strength in the Canadian Dollar.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 99.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.26% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.61% | 0.29% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.29% | 0.30% | -0.02% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.26% | 0.05% | -0.19% | -0.24% | 0.35% | 0.02% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.20% | 0.19% | -0.10% | 0.50% | 0.16% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 0.28% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.61% | -0.30% | -0.35% | -0.50% | -0.60% | -0.32% | -0.45% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.16% | -0.28% | 0.32% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | 0.14% | 0.09% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.45% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD Index began correcting after posting a fresh three-month high of 99.67 on Tuesday, following a report from the New York Times (NYT) that signaled Iran’s willingness to talk about ending the conflict with the United States (US). However, Tehran denied the reports and threatened a prolonged war, which appears to have revived demand for safe-haven assets.
In addition to reviving risk-off bets, upbeat US ADP Employment and surprisingly strong ISM Services PMI data for February have also strengthened the US Dollar.
The ADP reported that the US private sector created 63K fresh jobs in February, significantly higher than 50K estimates and the prior reading of 11K. Meanwhile, the ISM report showed that the Services PMI arrived higher at 56.1, while it was expected to come in lower at 53.5 from 53.8 in January.
Though the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades flat against the US Dollar amid Middle East conflicts, the former trades firmly against other peers amid higher oil prices. Given that Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the US, higher oil prices are a favorable situation for the Canadian Dollar.
USD/CAD technical analysis
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USD/CAD trades flat at around 1.3645 at the press time. The near-term bias is neutral as spot holds close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 1.3665.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 40.00-60.00 range stays below the 50 line, indicating soft bullish conviction and aligning with a corrective-to-lower tone rather than a sustained advance.
Initial support emerges at the February 18 low of 1.3632, guarding the recent 1.3558–1.3559 area that underpins the February base and defines the lower edge of the current range. A break below this band would expose the 1.3490 low and signal that sellers are regaining control. On the topside, immediate resistance is at the March 2 high of 1.3720, where a daily close above would be needed to shift the bias back toward the upside and open the way toward the mid-1.37s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
