USD/CAD Price Analysis: Intraday positive move stalls near 1.2575-80 confluence hurdle

USD/CAD gained some positive traction on Tuesday and moved away from two-week lows.
Bullish oil prices, renewed USD selling bias capped the upside near the 23.6% Fibo. level.
A sustained break below the 1.2500 mark is needed to confirm a fresh bearish breakdown.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair trimmed a part of its intraday gains and was last seen trading just above mid-1.2500s, up 0.25% for the day.

A goodish pickup in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and capped the upside for the USD/CAD pair. This, along with the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar, prompted some selling at higher levels. Despite the negative factors, the pair has managed to hold well above the key 1.2500 psychological mark, or over two-week lows touched in the previous day.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair on Monday managed to find some support near the 50% Fibonacci level of the 1.2365-1.2647 recent bounce from multi-year lows. The subsequent recovery, however, faltered near the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 1.2575 region. This coincides with 200-hour SMA and should now act as a key pivotal point for the next leg of a directional move.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the 1-hour chart have been gaining positive traction and support prospects for additional intraday gains. That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though have recovered from the negative territory – are yet to confirm a bullish bias. This makes it prudent to wait for a move beyond the mentioned confluence hurdle before placing fresh bullish bets.

A sustained strength above has the potential to push the USD/CAD pair further beyond the 1.2600 mark, towards testing the top boundary of a four-month-old descending channel, around the 1.2625-30 region. Some follow-through buying will mark a near-term bullish breakout and set the stage for an extension of the recent bounce from multi-year lows, around the 1.2365 region touched on March 18.

On the flip side, immediate support is pegged near the 1.2540-35 region (38.2% Fibo. level), below which the USD/CAD pair could slide back to rest the 50% Fibo. level. Failure to defend the said support levels will negate any near-term positive outlook and turn the pair vulnerable to resume it's prior/well-established downward trajectory witnessed over the past one year or so.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.2555
Today Daily Change	0.0030
Today Daily Change %	0.24
Today daily open	1.2525

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2544
Daily SMA50	1.2637
Daily SMA100	1.2729
Daily SMA200	1.3002

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2595
Previous Daily Low	1.2502
Previous Weekly High	1.2647
Previous Weekly Low	1.2528
Previous Monthly High	1.274
Previous Monthly Low	1.2365
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2538
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2559
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2486
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2448
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2394
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2579
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2633
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2672

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD remains offered near 1.1950

EUR/USD comes under pressure near the 1.1950 zone following the closing bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The Greenback’s rebound prompted spot to face some correction while investors continue to assess the latest FOMC event. On Thursday, the focus of attention will be on the weekly US labour market data and Factory Orders.

GBP/USD hesitates at four-year highs following lackluster Fed rate hold

GBP/USD churned in place on Tuesday, hitting a brief patch of volatility but otherwise holding steady near four-year highs as the US Dollar struggles to find its footing. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as many investors broadly anticipated, but the Fed’s rate statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell both failed to give any hints about potential shifts toward future rate cuts, which many investors broadly hoped.

Gold climbs above $5,500 for the first time on record

Gold price surges to a fresh record high of $5,579 before retreating to around $5,500 in early Asian trading on Thursday. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by strong safe-haven demand amidst persistent geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weaker US Dollar.

Fidelity unveils FIDD stablecoin, set to launch in coming weeks

Fidelity Investments announced that it will launch its first stablecoin, the Fidelity Digital Dollar, making it one of the first large traditional firms in the US to do so. The company will leverage the Ethereum blockchain to roll out the product to retail and institutional investors in the coming weeks, according to a press release on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve pauses, sees economy on firm footing

At its January meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, a decision that was fully in line with market expectations.

Bittensor Price Forecast: TAO rallies above $240 as AI tokens rebound

Bittensor reclaims $240 immediate support, reflecting positive sentiment in the broader crypto market. The TAO derivatives market signals retail interest return as futures Open Interest climbs to $163 million.