USD/CAD Price Analysis: Further downside hinges on 1.3630 break

USD/CAD seesaws around intraday low after falling the most in two weeks the previous day.
One-month-old ascending support line restricts immediate downside; 200-EMA is the key hurdle for Loonie pair bears.
Downbeat oscillators add strength to the bearish bias.
Recovery needs validation from 1.3815 to convince the bulls.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/CAD bears take a breather around 1.3660 during the early Asian session, following the biggest daily loss in a fortnight. In doing so, the Loonie pair seesaws around the key short-term support, as well as floats above the 1.3630 support confluence.

USD/CAD pair’s weakness gains support from the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14) line, not oversold. However, upward-sloping support from late February, around 1.3650 at the latest, restricts immediate declines of the quote.

Following that, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) joins the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s February-March upside, near 1.3630, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/CAD bears to crack.

Should the quote remains bearish past 1.3630, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement surrounding 1.3560 can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially aim to regain the 1.3700 round figure before challenging the latest tops surrounding 1.3750 and 1.3800.

However, a three-week-long horizontal resistance around 1.3815-20 holds the key to the USD/CAD bull’s conviction.

Overall, USD/CAD is likely to decline further but the downside needs validation from 1.3630.

USD/CAD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.3662
Today Daily Change	-0.0081
Today Daily Change %	-0.59%
Today daily open	1.3743

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3702
Daily SMA50	1.3529
Daily SMA100	1.3513
Daily SMA200	1.3359

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3804
Previous Daily Low	1.3708
Previous Weekly High	1.3804
Previous Weekly Low	1.3631
Previous Monthly High	1.3666
Previous Monthly Low	1.3262
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3767
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3745
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3699
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3655
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3602
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3796
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3849
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3893

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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