USD/CAD Price Analysis: 200-HMA, two-week-old hurdle probe bulls below 1.2700

USD/CAD keeps upside break of 100-HMA, attack the immediate range resistance.
Strong RSI suggests further upside, 1.2720 become the key hurdle.
Weekly horizontal support restricts the short-term seller’s entry.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/CAD picks up bids around 1.2690 while trying to extend the previous day’s upside momentum during the initial Asian session on Wednesday. In doing so, the quote holds above 100-HMA amid the strong RSI conditions.

However, a confluence of 200-HMA and a downward sloping trend line from February 04, currently around 1.2720, question the pair’s further upside. Also acting as the key resistance is Friday’s top near 1.2765.

In a case where the USD/CAD bulls hold controls above 1.2765, the 1.2800 and the monthly top around 1.2845 will be on their radar.

Meanwhile, pullback moves need to break 100-HMA support, at 1.2680 now, before directing the sellers toward the horizontal line near 1.2650.

Should USD/CAD sellers break 1.2650, the price-drop below the monthly low of 1.2609, flashed on Monday, can’t be ruled out.

USD/CAD hourly chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.2692
Today Daily Change	52 pips
Today Daily Change %	0.41%
Today daily open	1.264

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2739
Daily SMA50	1.2753
Daily SMA100	1.2938
Daily SMA200	1.3198

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2695
Previous Daily Low	1.2631
Previous Weekly High	1.2783
Previous Weekly Low	1.2661
Previous Monthly High	1.2881
Previous Monthly Low	1.259
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2655
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2671
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2616
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2592
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2552
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.268
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2719
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2743

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD risks a deeper drop below 1.1750

EUR/USD keeps its vacillating mood in place as the the NA session drwas to a close on Tuesday, hovering below the 1.1800 hurdle amid acceptable gains in the US Dollar. In the meantime, market participants and the FX galaxy are expected to closely follow President Trump’s SOTU speech around 2AM GMT.

GBP/USD regains 1.3500 and above

GBP/USD extends its advance for the third day in a row on Tuesday, this time retesting the area beyond the 1.3500 hurdle. Cable’s uptick comes despite decent gains in the Greenback and the dovish message from the BoE’s Bailey at the UK Parliament.

Gold appears offered around $5,150

Gold is giving back a good portion of the recent multi-day rally, receding to the $5,150 zone per troy ounce amid the decent bounce in the US Dollar and mixed US Treasuty yields. In the meantime, markets’ attention remain on upcoming comments from Fed speakers.

Australia CPI to highlight persistent price pressures, backing a hawkish outlook

Australia will release its key set of inflation figures for the month of January on Wednesday, with the Consumer Price Index expected to rise by 3.7%, slightly lower than the 3.8% in the last month of 2025.

The Citrini report: How a debatable AI narrative can shake Wall Street

That AI-related headline alone was enough to rattle investors.US stocks slid sharply on Monday after a widely circulated Citrini Research memo outlined a hypothetical “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, warning that rapid AI adoption could push US unemployment into double digits as early as by mid-2028.

XRP pressured by weak ETF flows and declining retail interest

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower, trading above its intraday low of $1.32 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The decline from its weekly opening of $1.39 reflects heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, accentuated by tariff-triggered uncertainty.