- USD/CAD takes offers to extend pullback from five-month high.
- US regulators unveil plans to tame SVB, Signature Bank inflicted risk.
- Fed rate hike expectations ease amid looming fears on US banks.
- Oil price cheers softer US Dollar with eyes on EIA, OPEC monthly reports.
USD/CAD stands on slippery grounds, declining nearly 0.80% intraday to 1.3720 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair sellers cheer the broad US Dollar weakness, as well as the recent recovery in prices of Crude Oil, Canada’s key export item.
US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to the lowest levels in a month, down 0.80% near 103.80, as risk-on mood joins easing hawkish Fed bets to drown the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies. On the other hand, WTI crude oil rises for the second consecutive day, up 0.50% intraday near $77.00 at the latest.
After witnessing the stock and bond market rout on Friday, the market sentiment improved as the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took joint actions to tame the risks emanating from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank during the weekend. “All depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected,” said the authorities in a statement released afterward. While reacting to the US regulators’ actions, US President Joe Biden said, “American people and American businesses can have confidence that their bank deposits will be there when they need them.”
It should be noted, however, that the latest fallout of the SVB and Signature Bank flagged fragile conditions of the US bank, which in turn pushed back hopes of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With this in mind, Goldman Sachs expects to rate hike in March while the Fed Fund Futures also cut previously upbeat odds favoring a 0.50% rate lift in the Fed rate in March.
Alternatively, China’s dislike for the US interference in Taiwan matters and the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) join the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish play to weigh on the Loonie prices.
On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) grew more than 205K expected to 311K in February, versus 504K (revised), while the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.6% for the said month compared to 3.4% expected and prior. Further, the Average Hourly Earnings rose on YoY but eased on monthly basis for February whereas the Labor Force Participation increased during the stated month.
At home, Canada’s Net Change in Employment rose to 21.8K versus 10K market forecasts and 150K prior while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0% compared to 5.1% expected.
Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February to direct immediate market moves. Following that, the Retail Sales and preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, up for publishing on Wednesday and Friday, will be crucial for clear directions of the USD/CAD traders.
Technical analysis
Friday’s Doji at multi-day high joins overbought RSI to favor USD/CAD pullback towards the late 2022 peak surrounding the 1.3700 round figure.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends decline toward 1.0500 after US data
EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0500 in the second half of the day on Monday. After the data from the US showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected in September, the US Dollar extended its rally and weighed on the pair.
GBP/USD falls below 1.2150 as USD rally continues
GBP/USD turned south and retreated to a fresh daily low below 1.2150 in the American session. The US Dollar continued to gather strength against its rivals after the better-than-expected ISM September Manufacturing PMI data and forced the pair to stay on the back foot.
Gold falls to fresh multi-month lows below $1,830
Gold price turned south and dropped to its weakest level since early March below $1,830. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield gained traction on upbeat US PMI data and was last seen rising nearly 2% on the day above 4.6%, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
Week ahead: Fed speech and NFP likely to dictate crypto market moves this week
With the start of 2023’s fourth quarter, things are finally getting interesting in crypto. While the next 12 weeks are extremely important, let’s start by focusing on what to expect this week.
NIO contracts 2% as Tesla delivery decline weighs on EV sector
Nio (NIO) stock dropped 2.3% on Monday morning despite meeting its quarterly delivery target for the third quarter. Tesla's (TSLA) Q3 production and delivery decline is the culprit.