US: Trump administration has provided its share of melodrama - BBH

In view of the analysts at BBH, the Trump administration has provided its share of melodrama in its first four months and to be sure it is not just him.  

Key Quotes

“Hope triumphed over reason among those who thought that the US economy would be ramped up to 3-4% growth, if not higher.  Talk of impeachment, or the fact that some betting internet sites now show odds favoring Trump not completing his term, seem far-fetched.  This is not to say it’s impossible.  The claim is more modest.  It is still early days of the three ongoing investigations into Russia's involvement in the US election (Senate, House of Representatives, and FBI).  Once again, the cover-up may prove to be more problematic than the offense in the first place.”  

“The wall between confidential information and public knowledge always seemed to be a bit porous.  What media outlets do not cite "unnamed sources" or attribute comments to persons who are not authorized to share them?  However, the Washington Post, New York Times, and to a lesser extent the Wall Street Journal, appear to be special recipients of a steady flow of such leaks.  There were only a few people, for example, that would know how Trump discussed the firing of Comey with Russian officials in the White House.”

“Former FBI Director Comey is now scheduled to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee after Memorial Day.  However, already it seems the lines are being drawn.  It is his word against the President's.  Just before the weekend, as Trump began his first trip abroad, it was reported that someone close to the President had been identified as a "person of interest" (suspected to be involved but not formally accused).  It has spurred furious speculation as to the person's identity.”

“And therein lies the dollar's problem.  Until Trump manages to get ahead of the curve and stop the hemorrhaging to mix metaphors, the Russian investigation will consume more attention and resources, and sap the enthusiasm for the economic program.  The President needs for any person of interest, even if it is a family member, to remove themselves until the situation is cleared.”

“This news stream is unlikely to improve anytime soon, and the legislative challenges being faced, separate from the Russia meme, will also come back to the fore.  Recall, ahead of Trump's 100th day in office, how the House of Representative's rushed through a health care bill.  Some members acknowledged not having read the bill in its entirety.  In an unusual fashion, there was a floor vote before the CBO could score it.”

“This is an important step in the overall strategy.  To establish the conditions that can lead to the reconciliation process between the House and Senate versions, the bill cannot lead to a larger deficit ten years out.  The version that passed the House was not sent to the Senate.  It was awaiting the CBO’s evaluation.  The CBO scored the bill a couple of times in March, but it has been amended.  The results may require new changes to the measure, which would require another vote in the House.”