US: Q2 GDP tracking estimate lowered to 3.5% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explain that by taking into considerations the latest US Census Bureau’s annual benchmark revisions to Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) data, they have lowered their Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 3.5% from 3.6%.

Key Quotes

“Manufacturers’ inventories for January through March 2017 were revised upwards, suggesting less of a slowdown in the change in private inventories in Q1. Therefore, our Q1 GDP tracking estimate has been raised by 0.1pp to 0.8% from 0.7%. Moreover, the upward revision to Q1 inventory accumulation created a higher jumping-off point for Q2. This implies a smaller increase in inventory accumulation in Q2 from Q1. Thus, our Q2 GDP tracking estimate has been lowered by 0.1pp to 3.5% from 3.6%.”