The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its US crude Oil production estimates downward for 2026. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released yesterday, the EIA said output would decline by 50k b/d year on year in 2026 to 13.37m b/d. This would be the first annual decline in US output since 2021, when Covid hit production. Meanwhile, output growth for 2025 was left unchanged at 210k b/d YoY. The decline isn’t too surprising, given the recent slowdown in drilling activity, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
EIA sees first U.S. Oil output decline since 2021 amid drilling slowdown
"There’s growing uncertainty in the refined products market as the European Commission proposes a ban on imports made from Russian crude Oil, according to a statement from Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. While the EU has already banned the import of Russian crude Oil and refined products, the bloc is importing refined products from third countries that process Russian crude Oil."
"This would mostly put refined product imports from India and Turkey at risk. Both countries import Russian crude Oil and export refined products to the EU. According to LSEG data, India and Turkey imported 1.77m b/d of Russian crude Oil in the first quarter of 2025, while the EU imported more than 350k b/d of refined products from these two countries. The bulk of this flow is middle distillates. Such a move would lead to yet another shift in refined product trade flows. But the Commission implementing such a ban would be difficult, given that refiners blend different types of crude Oil. Determining the origin of the crude Oil becomes challenging."
"The latest numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) show that US crude Oil inventories fell by around 400k barrels over the last week, less than the roughly 2.6m barrel draw the market expected. Changes in refined products were more bearish with gasoline and distillate stocks increasing by 3m barrels and 3.7m barrels, respectively."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD struggles to retain 1.1500 as USD gains traction
EUR/USD hovers around the 1.1500 level in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar surges despite dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, supporting a rate cut as soon as July. The mood sours as investors weigh Middle East developments.
GBP/USD dives below 1.3500 after weak UK data, resurgent USD
GBP/USD turned red for the day and approaches the 1.3450 area as the week comes to an end. Earlier in the day, the UK reported weak Retail Sales figures, although the ongoing slump seems related to renewed risk aversion fueling safe-haven US Dollar demand.
Gold surges above $3,3360 as fears kick in
Gold gathers near-term momentum and trades near $3,370 ahead of the weekly close, as risk sentiment took a turn to the south. Following a positive start, Wall Street turned south. Middle East tensions and massive back-and-forth missile exchanges between Iran and Israel seem to be behind the ongoing run to safety.
Ripple Price Prediction: How tokenized treasuries could accelerate XRP to $10 by end-2025
Ondo Finance launched tokenized treasuries on the XRP Ledger in June, paving the way for seamless institutional adoption. The market capitalization of tokenized treasuries has grown to $5.9 billion despite market uncertainty over US tariffs.
Weekly focus: War and risk of escalation weigh on market sentiment
The war between Israel and Iran and the risk of further escalation weighed on markets this week. Equity markets largely traded in red and US treasury yields slid lower. That said, markets were by no means in full risk-off sentiment.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.