US NFP Preview: 11 Major Banks expectations from June payrolls report

Today, the US jobs report for June is due out at 1230 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 11 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data.

Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to increase to 150k-180k in June, following the soft 75k print in May. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.6% in June.

Danske Bank

“Overall, the labour market has started to show some weakness, so we think it is important to keep an eye on employment growth, which is an important recession indicator, in our view.”

“The average monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls has declined to 164,000 this year, from 223,000 in 2018. We expect employment growth to come in around 175,000. We estimate average hourly earnings rose +0.20% m/m in June, unchanged at 3.1% y/y.”

TD Securities

“We look for payrolls to increase 150k in June, following the soft 75k print in the previous month. In particular, we expect job creation in the manufacturing sector to stay subdued, remaining in the single-digit range for a third consecutive month.”

“Likewise, we forecast employment in the services sector to register a modest rebound following the weak 82k print in May. The household survey should show the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.6%, while wages are expected to rise 0.3% m/m on the back of a favourable reference week. The latter should bring the annual print up a tenth to 3.2% in June.”

ING

“We expect payrolls to rebound from the surprisingly weak 75,000 reading in May, we doubt it will be enough to drag the 6M average meaningfully higher. We look for payrolls growth of 170,000. The consensus is 164,000 within a range of expectations of 100,000 to 205,000.”

“Monthly wage growth has been average a little over 0.2%MoM year to date, but we look for a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in June to reflect both the competition for workers, but also the technical point that there were only 20 working days in June versus 23 in May.”

“The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% in April and stayed there in May – the lowest level since December 1969. We expect it to remain there again this month but the balance of risks are more to the upside than the downside given slowing employment growth and the outside possibility that higher wage growth may attract some people back to the labour force.”

National Bank Financial

“We look for US employment growth to bounce back to a 180k rate in June after a 75k increase in May.  That (smaller-than-expected) earlier reading caused some hand-wringing, but looked decidedly better under the hood.”

“The unemployment rate held at multi-decade lows in May and wage growth is still tracking slightly above a 3% pace.”

Westpac

“US non-farm payrolls rose just 75k in May, with downward revisions, well below expectations. A better number is expected in June, with a median of 160k and +/- 1 standard deviation 140k to 185k. A rise of 160k would translate to annual job creation of 1.5%.”

“The separately-surveyed unemployment rate is expected to remain at a very low 3.6%. Average hourly earnings could be the most sensitive number for markets, with consensus for a pickup to 0.3%mth, 3.2%yr. The latter is still below the Feb 2019 cycle high of 3.4%.”

ANZ

“We are sceptical that the Fed would act from one data point alone, but if the numbers confirm a loss of momentum in the labour market or are extremely weak, the focus will return immediately to the potential for a 50bps cut. Market expectations are for a 160k rise (last: 75k), which would leave the 3-month average unchanged at around 150k and 6-month average at 160k. That’s still above the level of jobs creation needed to absorb the natural increase in the labour force and consistent with further falls in the unemployment rate. That said, the June ADP report was softer than expected at 102k (mkt: 140k) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment sub-component fell to 55.0 from 58.1. So the bias in the market is probably skewed towards a weaker outcome.”

ABN AMRO

“June nonfarm payrolls will therefore attract even more attention than usual, particularly given the May number was a very weak +75k (the Jan-April average was +195k). Consensus expects a +160k print, and our forecast is a little higher at +170k, given the likelihood of some payback for the May weakness.”

“A somewhat weak print (120-150k) would not have a significant market impact, but if we were to see another sub-100k reading, markets would likely take it to mean a higher likelihood of a 50bp rate cut, at least as a kneejerk reaction.”

Wells Fargo

Analysts at Wells Fargo, lowered non-farm payrolls expectations from 175K to 165K after ISM non-manufacturing report. They also noted that tariff worries are spreading to the service sector. 

“The employment component slipped 3.1 points to 55.0, signaling the slowest pace of hiring since June 2018, and the number of industries hiring fell to just 50%. We have revised down our call for Friday’s jobs report to +165K from +175K previously.”

Scotiabank

“The biggest issue is whether nonfarm's disappointment in May (+75k) was a flash in the pan or something that portends ongoing or intensifying weakness.”

“If it bounces higher, then it would be partial evidence to give the Fed some breathing room; by corollary, another disappointment would likely spook the Fed.”

“Decided to go with +100k for nonfarm payroll.”

National Bank of Canada

“Hiring, may have remained relatively subdued judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed private sector employment advancing at the weakest pace in just over two years. Still, we’re calling for a slight acceleration in employment creation to 150K, a level above what the Atlanta Fed considers sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labour market and keep the unemployment rate steady over the long term (+110K/month).”

Rabobank

“Expectations are for 160K, up from 75K last time round, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y.”