US: Headline CPI to retreat to 1.5% thanks to lower gasoline prices - TDS

"We expect headline CPI to retreat to 1.5% thanks to lower gasoline prices," said TD Securities previewing this week's inflation report from the U.S.

Key quotes

"Outside of fuels, however, we see strength across food and core services. The latter should underpin a 0.2% m/m print on core CPI, translating to a 2.1% y/y increase vs 2.2% previously. All eyes are on Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) and rents, which we expect to rebound by 0.3%."

"The main risks to this report are medical care services and hotels (10% of the core index), both of which could correct lower than their December prints. Strength in the former looks unsustainable, while the latter is volatile. Looking ahead, we anticipate headline CPI will likely remain in a narrow 1.4-1.6% range, with a break toward 2% unlikely before Q4 at the earliest."

"Given the focus on geopolitical and other global events, the January inflation data might take a back seat to other drivers. Barring two downside (and one upside) surprises, the data have matched consensus for the bulk of the past 12 releases. For the broader FX market, we don't expect much fireworks for a release that falls in line with market expectations. Instead, the USD comes into the release running rich to risk sentiment (at least against the G9) and positioning remains lopsided in favor of the buck. That means the balance of favors screens lower on the USD, unless we see a notable upside surprise."

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Weakest daily close since June 2017, focus on US durable goods

EUR/USD looks south toward 1.10, having bolstered the already bearish technical setup with a close below 1.1176 yesterday. The pair took a beating yesterday, courtesy of the broad-based US dollar demand. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD regains 1.2900 handle on Brexit headlines

The GBP/USD pair regains its stand above 1.2900 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Absence of immediate challenge to PM May’s position and a likely Brexit deal voting helps the GBP.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY keeps range around 112.00 post-BOJ

USD/JPY has barely moved in response to BOJ’s decision to keep key policy tools unchanged. The downward revision of the growth and inflation forecasts could push the JPY lower during the day ahead. 

USD/JPY News

US Durable Goods Preview: Where the consumer leads

Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.8% in March having fallen 1.6% in February. Orders excluding the transportation sector are predicted to gain 0.2%.

Read more

Gold: Immediate rising support-line favors gradual recovery to $1280

Gold is taking the rounds near $1276 while heading into the European open on Thursday. The yellow metal has been on recovery from Tuesday when it plummeted to the 2019 lows.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures