US: Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data eyed - Nomura

In view of the analysts at Nomura, Chicago PMI and Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data will be in the limelight for today’s US session.

Key Quotes

“Chicago PMI: The headline index decreased to 50.3 from 53.9 in January, lower than the three-month average of 53.8. However, readings from other regional surveys improved further in February, suggesting that the pullback in this index in January may have been transitory. Both the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Philly Fed survey improved further in January, implying that manufacturers’ optimism continued to improve. Thus, we expect some rebound in the Chicago PMI and forecast a reading of 57.1 for February (Consensus: 53.5).”

“Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence: The consumer confidence index declined slightly from December but remained elevated at 111.8 in January. This reading suggests consumer sentiment, which improved strongly after the election in November, may have plateaued. The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, covering the first half of February, receded from a highly elevated reading in January. The partisan polarization in sentiment widened further in this issue, pointing to a deep divergence in the way in which consumers assess near-term conditions. Moreover, some hard measures of economic activity have suggested a sign of a pick-up recently, but it is unclear this recent uptick is enough to drive further increase in consumer optimism. Thus, we forecast the consumer confidence index declined slightly but remained elevated at 111.0 in February (Consensus: 111.0).”