UK: Will Prime Minister Theresa May stay? – ING

Since the general election in June, PM Theresa May’s position is perceived to have weakened and this has led to questions over how long she can remain in office, particularly as opinion polls were  suggesting the public is dissatisfied with the government’s handling of Brexit, explains the research team at ING.

Key Quotes 

“The fact that the Prime Minister has been able to reach an agreement with the EU on 'sufficient progress', having navigated a delicate path within her own party and with the DUP, could help to repair this image. By and large, the government has also successfully avoided a large fallout over the politically-sensitive 'divorce bill', and the first opinion poll after the announcement of the deal has seen the Conservative's popularity bounce. They now have a narrow lead of one percentage point over Labour.”

“Nonetheless, PM May remains vulnerable, and a fresh leadership challenge in 2018 can’t be fully ruled out should negotiations falter. We also have to recognise that there is always the potential for a by-election to be called as there are typically four to five a year. So given PM May's wafer-thin majority the government could still fall, paving the way for new elections.”