UK’s PM Theresa May is expected to make a statement to MPs later at 1130GMT and finally trigger Article 50. According to previous consensus, the statement should lean to the conciliatory tone, calling all Britons to unite ahead of this historical moment.
At about the same time, her letter should be hand-delivered by Sir Tim Barrow, UK Ambassador to the EU, to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council. From that moment, the clock will begin to tick signaling the start of (at least) 2-year negotiations that should end with more than 40-years of association between the UK and the EU.
Key Notes
Brexit: Likely to see negotiations about how to negotiate at the beginning
According to analysts at Danske Bank, while the EU wants to settle the divorce bill first before discussing the future relationship, the UK wants to discuss both simultaneously –we are likely to see negotiations about how to negotiate at the beginning and the risk of ‘no deal’ seems to be the highest here.
Analysts at Lloyds Bank explains that we’re set for a UK centric session, at least from a headline perspective as we’re set to see PM Theresa May trigger Article 50, following her closing remarks in PMQs at 1230, at which point Sir Tim Barrow will deliver a signed letter to EU Council President Donald Tusk. The UK government will begin the two-year process to exit the EU. According to the Lisbon treaty, both parts, the EU and the UK, will start now negotiating a deal on the withdrawal and establish legal grounds for a future relationship.
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