Brexit: Likely to see negotiations about how to negotiate at the beginning – Danske Bank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

According to analysts at Danske Bank, while the EU wants to settle the divorce bill first before discussing the future relationship, the UK wants to discuss both simultaneously –we are likely to see negotiations about how to negotiate at the beginning and the risk of ‘no deal’ seems to be the highest here.

Key Quotes

“The UK and EU will probably have to negotiate about how to negotiate after the triggering of Article 50. Due to the ratification process, a deal (or at least a transitional deal) has to be reached by October 2018 the latest.”

“The UK is set to leave the single market and the custom union, as staying within means it cannot make free trade deals with other countries.”

“It is unlikely that a full deal can be reached within the two years of negotiations so the UK and EU are likely to agree on a transitional phase, especially for exposed industries such as autos, agriculture and financial services.”

“The UK has ruled out contributing significantly to the EU budget, which may create tensions among EU27, as the UK is one of the biggest net contributors to the EU budget. This is one of the UK’s best negotiation weapons.”

“In our base case, the final deal will be something similar to the EU-Canada CETA deal, which reduces/removes trade barriers for goods but remains weak on service. The UK is set to lose passport rights for banks.”

“Risk of a so-called ‘cliff edge’ Brexit with no agreement has increased, as May has said that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’. We think that the risk is highest at the beginning of the negotiations due to disagreement on the ‘divorce’ bill.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

EUR/USD remains bid near 1.1650 post-US ADP

Finally some respite for the risk complex see EUR/USD partially recover from the recent steep sell-off, this time hovering around the 1.1650 zone amid decent gains in a context of renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar. However, the duration and extension of this bounce should be put to the test amid the unabated tensions in the Middle East.

GBP/USD meets resistance around 1.3400

In line with its risk-linked peers, GBP/USD stages a modest comeback on Wednesday, although meeting some resistance around the 1.3400 neighbourhood. Cable’s humble recovery comes on the back of the fresh downward bias in the Greenback amid a marginal improvement in the global sentiment and steady geopolitical effervescence.

Gold flirts with $5,200 amid safe haven demand

Gold partially fades Tuesday’s sharp pullback, regaining the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on the back of the resurgence of investors’ demand for the safe-haven space. The precious metal remains well propped up by the deterioration of the geopolitical scenario in the Middle East, while the softer tone in the US Dollar collaborates with the uptick.