UK: Focus on industrial production and trade data - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the UK industrial production numbers and trade data will be the key economic releases for today’s session.

Key Quotes

“We already know (via the Q3 preliminary GDP report) how the industrial and manufacturing sectors performed during the quarter as a whole. As a result, forecasting production growth in September typically involves working out what monthly rate of growth is consistent with that quarterly outturn. Of course, there may well be revisions to the back-data, but assuming not the quarterly numbers imply a further modest increase in output in September. That would be consistent with the continued strength of the PMI surveys.”

“UK trade: A sharp rise in the oil and erratic deficits during recent months added over £2bn to the monthly trade deficit between May and August – around half of the total increase in the headline deficit. Together with a partial unwind of the 5% monthly rise in underlying import volumes in August, this could see an improvement in the total goods deficit in September (we forecast a narrowing of around £1bn).”