Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: TSLA still stuck in first gear

• Tesla stock continues to search for bullish direction.
• TSLA shares stuck at the 200-day moving average.
• EV auto-maker bounced on the release of Model S Plaid but still rangebound.

Tesla stock recovered last week as some investor enthusiasm finally returned to the stock with the release of the new Model S Plaid at Tesla's Freemont factory. The event was live-streamed. The new vehicle is an impressive high-end machine with a top speed of 200 miles per hour and taking only fifteen minutes to charge up to a range of 187 miles. Tesla share price rallied on the release but has struggled to break away from the 200-day moving average.

Monday saw TSLA open strongly but the stock struggled to push on with the early momentum. A late rally put a slightly better look to the day and TSLA closed at $617.69 up 1.28%. 

Tesla stock forecast

A relatively recent uptrend formed from the failure to test the key $539 support level which has been in place since mid-May and is holding Tesla shares. So, the first part was done, that of stopping the falling Tesla share price but the direction is still mostly sideways. Some positives are the recapture of the 9-day moving average. The momentum oscillators, RSI (Relative Strength Index) and CCI (Commodity Channel Index) are trending higher thereby confirming the price move. Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD) also similarly moving higher with the price.

Above $635 there is a reduction in the volume profile to the right of the chart. This means the area from $635 to $667 does not offer a lot of resistance so breaking $635 should see the move accelerate. Back above $667 the volume profile increases again and as can be seen from the even red and green area of the bars, the volume is pretty evenly distributed between buying and selling. So a strong equilibrium and price acceptance between buyers and sellers. This will make getting through $667 to $700 tricky and may take some time. 

The longer-term view in the chart below shows just how strong the support is at the first consolidation zone with the point of control at $416.99, this is the strongest equilibrium area between buyers and sellers. As the volume profile shows us, $539 is key to hold. Below is a relative vacuum of volume which would mean a price break of $530 would likely see an acceleration to $460-$440. For now, the Tesla stock price look more bullish with $635 the first target.