S&P 500: Fresh move lower to increase VIX – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 has seen its expected rejection from the top of the price gap from early June and downtrend from March at 3190 and a small bearish ‘reversal day’ should see the immediate risk stay lower with support seen at 3130/25. Meanwhile, the VIX is again holding key support from its 200-day average and June low at 26.22/23.54 and analysts at Credit Suisse look for a fresh rise from here.

Key quotes

“The S&P 500 has seen its expected rejection from our next flagged resistance from the top of the price gap from early June and potential downtrend from March at 3190 and the completion of a small bearish ‘reversal day’ is seen adding weight to our view we should now look for a fresh move lower in the broader high-level consolidation range.”

“Support is seen next at the lower end of the price gap from yesterday at 3130/25, beneath which can then see a retest of the 13-day average and 38.2% retracement of the most recent swing higher at 3113/11, with fresh buyers expected here. A closing break can reinforce the view we are set for a much lengthier consolidation phase, with support seen next at 3092.” 

“Resistance is seen at 3159 initially, with 3184/90 now expected to remain a fairly solid cap for now. Above though can quickly reassert an upward bias for a look at the 3223/33 June highs.” 

“The VIX has retraced and is again holding key support from its 200-day average and June low at 26.22/23.54 and we look for a fresh rise from here in line with our corrective view above, with resistance seen initially at 33.20.”