Singapore: Unemployment expected to rose to 3.5% - UOB

Barnabas Gan, Economist at UOB Group, reviewed the prospects for the labour market figures in Singapore.

Key Quotes

“Singapore’s overall unemployment rate rose to 2.4% in the first quarter of 2020, according to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Manpower. Higher unemployment rates for both residents (from 3.2% to 3.3%) and citizens (from 3.3% to 3.5%) were also observed.”

“Retrenchment numbers also rose in 1Q20 to 3,000 persons, up from 2,670 in the previous quarter. The level of retrenchment remains significantly lower compared to Global Financial Crisis (GFC) where retrenchments surged to 12,760 in 1Q09.”

“Total employment in Singapore however plunged by 19,900 jobs, led by a significant reduction in foreign employment. All three major industries (Manufacturing, Services & Construction) saw reduction in employment.”

“Labour conditions are still expected to worsen especially in the upcoming quarter considering the circuit breaker measures as well as the sharp decline in global demand. We expect unemployment to rise to 3.5% in 2020, with upside risks should the COVID-19 pandemic be more severe and protracted than anticipated.”