Platinum market apparently less tight than previously thought – Commerzbank

The World Platinum Investment Council and Metals Focus, a research company specializing in precious metals, have revised their forecast for the Platinum supply deficit this year down to 692,000 ounces. In September, the forecast was 850,000 ounces, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Upside potential for Platinum is likely to be limited

"In May, the forecast was even higher at just under 1 million ounces. However, the Platinum market remains significantly undersupplied for the third year in a row. This is expected to change next year when the WPIC and Metals Focus anticipate a slight supply surplus of 20,000 ounces. In its five-year outlook in September, the WPIC had envisaged a considerable deficit of 591,000 ounces for 2026."

"The fact that the market is unlikely to be undersupplied in the coming year is due to lower demand from the automotive industry and for Platinum jewelry, as well as significantly weaker investment demand, which is expected to halve compared to this year. In addition, mining and recycling supply is likely to increase."

"However, the WPIC points out that the forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption that the tariff conflict will ease, which should lead to a reduction in the sharply increased exchange-registered inventories recorded this year. This will have a negative impact on investment demand. The same applies to the assumed outflows from Platinum ETFs due to profit-taking. If these developments do not materialize, there may be a further, albeit small, supply deficit in the coming year. The further upside potential for Platinum is likely to be limited due to the less tight market situation."