NZD/USD trades flat as strong US data, trade tensions balance sentiment

NZD/USD hovers around 0.5740 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors digest another round of strong US economic data and remain cautious ahead of the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims figures due later in the day.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finds it difficult to gain ground against the US Dollar (USD), which remains underpinned by robust economic releases from the United States (US). On Wednesday, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales rose by 0.6% in November to $735.9 billion, following a 0.1% contraction in October and beating market expectations. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised to the upside, with both headline and core inflation printing at 3% YoY, confirming that price pressures remain persistent.

These figures strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep its monetary policy restrictive for longer. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the US economy appears resilient and noted that inflation, while still too high, is moving in the right direction. In this context, Morgan Stanley analysts pushed back their expectations for the first interest rate cuts to June and September, from January and April previously.

On the international front, the New Zealand Dollar is pressured by renewed trade-war concerns between the United States (US) and China, New Zealand’s main trading partner. US President Donald Trump signed two executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on certain semiconductors and authorizing potential levies on critical minerals. The White House highlighted the United States’ heavy reliance on imports in this sector, a factor that strengthens China’s leverage in bilateral discussions and fuels risk aversion in the markets. However, recent data on China's trade balance is easing concerns about the real impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy, which is helping to limit downward pressure on the Kiwi.

Meanwhile, easing concerns over the independence of the Fed, after US President Donald Trump said he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has helped stabilize the US Dollar after the turbulence seen earlier in the week.

Investors now turn their attention to the US Initial Jobless Claims, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, as well as speeches from several Federal Reserve officials later in the day, to assess the momentum of the US economy and its implications for the interest rate outlook.