NZD/USD seesaws around 3-week low amid mixed bag of data/news

  • NZD/USD retraces losses amid upbeat news concerning US-China poultry trade relations.
  • RBNZ “shadow board” increased skew towards a higher OCR.
  • Holiday in the US will curb market moves amid a light economic calendar.

With the weekend headlines confirming the US-China staying positive at least on poultry business, coupled with the recent optimism surrounding the RBNZ, the NZD/USD pair trades near 0.6335 at the start of the week’s Asian trading on Monday.

The United States (US) is considering to import China’s poultry and is seen recognizing the dragon nation’s inspections, which in turn reduce the trade tension between the world’s two largest economies after concerns grew that the US is stepping back from reversing tariffs that were much-anticipated previously.

Also helping the kiwi could be comments from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) ‘shadow’ monetary policy board that the range of views amongst the NZIER Policy Shadow Board on the appropriate level of the OCR (official cash rate) at the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) released on Wednesday has widened since September. 

On the economic front, New Zealand’s Electronic Card Retail Sales for October dropped from 0.0% MoM and 2.2% YoY forecasts to -0.6% and 1.6% respectively.

The quote recently has been under pressure among the market’s rush towards the US Dollar (USD) in search of a risk safety. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Considering the absence of the US traders from markets, due to the Veteran’s Day holiday, sentiments are likely to be a little choppy with investors searching clues for near-term direction.

Technical Analysis

A confluence of 10 and 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6360 acts as an immediate upside barrier, a break of which could recall 0.6400 on the chart. On the downside, 0.6300 and 0.6280 keep acting as immediate support for the quote.

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