|

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears could move in for the kill at any moment according to H4 structure

  • NZD/USD bulls tests bear commitments at 4-hour resistance at 0.6627.
  • Bears look for a break of daily support at 0.6589 to engage fully from there.

As per the prior analysis, NZD/USD struggles in the face of a stronger US dollar despite hot RBNZ inflation expectations, there are bearish developments to take note of. 

it was stated in the prior analysis, that ''the Doji candle, if followed by a bearish close on Friday, could set the case for a downside continuation for next week's business,'' as follows:

NZD/USD live market

The price action since the prior analysis has started to play out. The Doji was followed by a relatively strong bearish candle and today's, while yet to close, is also bearish. 

The outcome of today's close could leave a Three Black Crows bearish candlestick formation on the daily chart. However, the candles should ideally be relatively long-bodied bearish candlesticks that close at or near the low price for the period. Nevertheless, the focus is on the downside from a longer-term perspective as illustrated in the following weekly chart:

NZD/USD H4 structure and scenarios

From a bullish perspective, the price could easily find support at the daily support structure. If the current tests at 4-hour resistance at 0.6627 fail but support remains firm, we will have a trapped scenario.

This could easily lead to a break of resistance and bullish market structure, leaving the focus back on the upside again for a deeper correction of the weekly chart's bearish impulse. 

On the other hand, bears will be encouraged by a break of daily support at 0.6589 and might engage fully from there on the restest of the structure. This would be expected to act as a firm resistance and ultimately lead to a downside continuation of the weekly chart's bear trend. 

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD bounces off one-week low amid Iran diplomacy hopes, ahead of UK CPI

The GBP/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session, snapping a four-day losing streak to the 1.3360 area, or a one-week low, touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through buying and trade below the 1.3400 mark, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from an over two-month high has run its course.

EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB expectations despite US-Iran tensions

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1405 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. A hawkish tone from the European Central Bank provides some support to the Euro against the US Dollar. Traders await the upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. 

Gold: Strong recovery might face roadblock as oil price extends gains

Gold price extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Wednesday, trading 1.5% higher to near $4,140 during the Asian session. The precious metal recovered strongly in the past few trading days from its three-week low of $3,959.80 as traders scaled back Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike expectations for the monetary policy meeting next week.

Bitcoin holds firm as ONDO and GRAM lead rally

The broader cryptocurrency market is witnessing an easing of bearish momentum, with Bitcoin holding above $66,000 on Wednesday. Altcoins including Ondo and Gram, formerly known as Toncoin, are leading gains over the last 24 hours, driven by new features. Bitcoin holds above $66,000 on Wednesday, following a 2% surge the previous day.

UK CPI set to show receding inflation in June as GBP/USD fails at May highs

The UK Office for National Statistics will release the June Consumer Price Index figures on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT, a print that will matter for markets. Consensus expectations point to inflation pressures still above the Bank of England’s target, although losing further momentum.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.