|

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears could move in for the kill at any moment according to H4 structure

  • NZD/USD bulls tests bear commitments at 4-hour resistance at 0.6627.
  • Bears look for a break of daily support at 0.6589 to engage fully from there.

As per the prior analysis, NZD/USD struggles in the face of a stronger US dollar despite hot RBNZ inflation expectations, there are bearish developments to take note of. 

it was stated in the prior analysis, that ''the Doji candle, if followed by a bearish close on Friday, could set the case for a downside continuation for next week's business,'' as follows:

NZD/USD live market

The price action since the prior analysis has started to play out. The Doji was followed by a relatively strong bearish candle and today's, while yet to close, is also bearish. 

The outcome of today's close could leave a Three Black Crows bearish candlestick formation on the daily chart. However, the candles should ideally be relatively long-bodied bearish candlesticks that close at or near the low price for the period. Nevertheless, the focus is on the downside from a longer-term perspective as illustrated in the following weekly chart:

NZD/USD H4 structure and scenarios

From a bullish perspective, the price could easily find support at the daily support structure. If the current tests at 4-hour resistance at 0.6627 fail but support remains firm, we will have a trapped scenario.

This could easily lead to a break of resistance and bullish market structure, leaving the focus back on the upside again for a deeper correction of the weekly chart's bearish impulse. 

On the other hand, bears will be encouraged by a break of daily support at 0.6589 and might engage fully from there on the restest of the structure. This would be expected to act as a firm resistance and ultimately lead to a downside continuation of the weekly chart's bear trend. 

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD remains below 1.1750 ahead of ECB policy decision

EUR/USD remains on the back foot below 1.1750 in the European session on Thursday. Traders move to the sidelines and refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the pair ahead of the ECB policy announcements and the US CPI inflation data. 

GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.3400, awaits BoE and US CPI

GBP/USD oscillates in a narrow band below 1.3400 in European trading on Thursday. The pair trades with caution as markets eagerly await the BoE policy verdict and US consumer inflation data for fresh directional impetus. 

Gold holds losses below $4,350 ahead of US CPI report

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and holds its pullback below $4,350 in the European session on Thursday. The downtick could be attributed to some profit-taking amid a US Dollar bounce. All eyes now remain on the US CPI inflation data. 

BoE set to resume easing cycle, trimming interest rate to 3.75%

The Bank of England will announce its last monetary policy decision of 2025 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. The market prices a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would leave the BoE’s Bank Rate at 3.75%.

US CPI data expected to show inflation rose slightly to 3.1%, cooling Fed rate cut bets for January

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. The CPI inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in November

Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE breaks key support amid declining investor confidence

Dogecoin (DOGE) trades in the red on Thursday, following a 4% decline on the previous day. The DOGE supply in profit declines as large wallet investors trim their portfolios. Derivatives data shows a surge in bearish positions amid declining retail interest.