NZD/USD is on the verge of a run lower after Jobs data miss depending on the Fed

NZD/USD has dropped following the New Zealand jobs data:

• New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q4: 3.4% (est 3.3%; prev 3.3%).
• Employment Change (QoQ) Q4: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 1.3%).
• Employment Change (YoY) Q4: 1.3% (est 1.5%; prev 1.2%).
• Participation Rate Q4: 71.7% (est 71.7%; prev 71.7%).

The data is not as strong as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected and hence the sell-off in the kiwi. Prior to the data, NZD/USD was around flat on the day and traded between a low of 0.6413 and 0.6479, recoiling some of the day's losses as the US Dollar piped down ahead of critical events for the remainder of the week. 

The greenback was softer on eh back of slightly slower-than-expected wage gains. The market is focussed on the Nonfarm Payrolls event this Friday where there is less certainty around the data, as compared to the expectations of the Federal Reserve. A 25 basis point hike is fully price din following the series of disinflationary data.  The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to emphasize that despite slowing the pace of rate increases it is still determined to reach the terminal rate projected in the Dec dot plot which is also expected by the markets, so there will be no shocks in this regard. However, if the Fed overall emphasises this point, there could be a pick-up in demand for the greenback and a sell-off in risk assets.

NZD/USD technical analysis

NZD/USD is on the brink of a move to test lower and 0.6360 is key, but in doing so, an M-formation will be left on the charts which is a reversion pattern. There is no telling what will come of the Fed.