NZD/USD attracts some buyers above 0.6050 as China cuts Loan Prime Rates by 25 bps

NZD/USD gains ground to around 0.6075 in Monday’s Asian session.
The Chinese central bank reduced the 1-year Loan Prime Rate to 3.10% from 3.35%, bigger than expected.
Expectations for a less aggressive Fed easing might support the USD.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.6075 during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair edges higher amid the softer US Dollar (USD) broadly and the announcement of China rate cuts. Later on Monday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Neel Kashkari and Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak.

On Monday, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) decided to cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 3.35% to 3.10% and cut the five-year LPR from 3.85% to 3.60%. China’s latest move to revive growth and fight off deflation is likely to support New Zealand (NZD) as China is a major trading partner for New Zealand.

However, the rising expectation of more aggressive easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) amid a fall in inflation to the central bank's target range of 1% to 3% in the third quarter could cap the upside for the NZD.

On the other hand, bets for a less aggressive Fed policy easing might lift the Greenback against the Kiwi. The chance of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stands at more than 90%. Financial markets have priced in two 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cuts before the end of 2024 and further rate cuts next year, likely bringing the policy rate to a 3.25%-3.5% range by September 2025, per Reuters.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD surges to multi-day peaks past 1.3250

GBP/USD leaves behind Friday’s small pullback and advances past 1.3250 level, or five-day highs, on Monday. Cable’s upside follows extra losses in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD softens to near 1.1400 as ECB tightening bets fade

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1415 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro softens against the US Dollar as traders reduce their bets on the European Central Bank rate hikes this year.

Gold crashes with Japanese Yen as stops likely triggered

Gold is down nearly 1.50% so far in Tuesday’s Asian trading, sitting at a fresh seven-month low as the key $3,950 psychological barrier gave way amid a renewed wave of selling.

Bitcoin stalls at $60K as buyer conviction fades, Strategy authorizes BTC sales

Bitcoin is trading around the $60,000 level on Monday after a sharp decline last week. With the top crypto struggling to recover, analysts suggest the market remains firmly in defensive territory as investors await stronger signs of demand.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.