Nvidia was one of the top-performing stocks in 2021, but the picture has changed in 2022 with the stock falling by nearly 40% year to date. This has been largely due to the shift from growth to value stocks as well as the changing macroeconomic picture. A series of rate hikes from central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have been aggressively priced in by equity markets. Inflation and supply chain issues have also caused a rotational shift from growth to value and from tech to defensive stocks. We surmise that this reduction in Nvidia's stock price presents a more sustainable entry point with risks of a valuation re-rating offset by continued strong revenue growth. We will outline our DCF model with revenue assumptions leading to a fair value share price for Nvidia as well as comparative models versus its peer group and index members. 

Contents

Nvidia: Company overview

Key valuation rating metrics

Peer value comparison

Macroeconomic backdrop, market cycle and sector analysis

Recent news and earnings

NVDA forecasts

NVDA technical analysis

Executive summary, recommendation and price target

Nvidia: Company overview

Nvidia is part of the global semiconductor industry with operations spanning graphics cards and gaming, automotive applications and data centers. Nvidia was founded in 1993 by three US computer scientists: Jen Hsun Huang, Curtis Priem and Christopher Malachowsky. The initial focus of the company was on the gaming industry with the production of high-end graphics processing units (GPU), which helped power the explosion in gaming culture that took off in the 1990s.

Also read: Apple Stock Deep Dive: AAPL price target at $100 on falling 2023 revenues

The GeForce was the company's first blockbuster gaming card and elevated the company to global prominence. The success of this led to Microsoft selecting Nvidia for its Xbox console. Currently, Nvidia operates across gaming, streaming via GeForce NOW, automotive applications for onboard display and infotainment units, and also provides units for cloud-based applications. The company splits its revenue according to automotive, datacentre applications, gaming and intellectual property, and professional visualizations. Nvidia has invested heavily in the omniverse with 3D virtual worlds and sees this as a key component of its future strategy.

Nvidia has been deriving a significant share of its revenue from Asia. This has been largely due to the growth of manufacturing hubs in Asia as well as the growing Chinese middle class. 

    2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
    30-Jan-2022  31-Jan-2021  26-Jan-2020  27-Jan-2019  28-Jan-2018 
China        26% 23% 25% 24% 20%
Taiwan        32% 27% 28% 29% 31%
Other Asia Pacific       -- 19% 25% 20% 21%
Europe       -- 6.7% 9.1% 7.8% 7.9%
United States       16% 19% 8.1% 13% 13%
ROW   26% 5% 5.0% 6% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100.2% 100% 100%

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet

Nvidia's revenue by product line, below, shows the dominance of the original gaming sector. However, data center revenue has increased markedly and now rivals gaming. These are the current two main drivers of revenue and will continue to be so over the next three to five years in our view. The omniverse potential remains much harder to quantify, but it retains the chance of being a super catalyst. Recent earnings for cloud peers such as Microsoft and even Amazon via its AWS unit have shown continued strength in the cloud sector. In its last earnings report, Nvidia showed remarkable revenue growth across the data center sphere, running at over an 80% growth rate on a yearly basis. We estimate this makes it likely to be the biggest revenue driver over the next three to five years. 

      HISTORICAL (ACTUALS) FORECAST (MEAN)    
  FY Jan-20 FY Jan-21 FY Jan-22 FY Jan-23 FY Jan-24 FY Jan-25
INCOME STATEMENT            
REVENUE 10,918 16,675 26,914 33,721 39,356 45,529
    Guidance T T T T - -
        AUTOMOTIVE 700 536 566 690 998 1,163
        DATACENTER 2,983 6,696 10,613 16,918 21,448 24,568
        GAMING 5,518 7,759 12,462 13,193 13,842 15,090
        OEM AND IP 505 631 1,162 673 654 727
        PROFESSIONAL VISUALIZATION 1,212 1,053 2,111 2,616 2,916 3,314

Source: Refinitiv & FXStreet

Nvidia Wall Street consensus forecast

  Analysts Per level      
  09-Mar-2022 09-Apr-2022 09-May-2022 Current
1 - StrongBuy 11 11 11 12
2 - Buy 29 28 28 29
3 - Hold 7 8 9 8
4 - Sell 1 - - -
5 - StrongSell - - - -
Rec Mean 2 1.9 2 1.9
         
Price Target Summary        
Price Target Target      
  09-Mar-2022 09-Apr-2022 09-May-2022 Current
Median $350.00 $350.00 $350.00 $250.00
Mean $341.17 $343.03 $326.46 $264.52

Source: Refinitiv 

The Wall Street analyst community remains almost uniformly bullish on Nvidia with only one sell rating and an average price target of $250. At current prices, this gives it a near 40% upside. 

Nvidia key valuation metrics

Market cap $ 451 billion
Enterprise Value 462 billion
EV/EBITDA 35
Free Float 2.4 billion
IPO date 22-Jan-99
52-week high 346.47
52-week low 155.67
Short interest 1.30%
YTD performance -39%
3-Year performance 430%

Source: Refinitic, TradingView, FXStreet

 

Nvidia peer value comparison

Nvidia was a pandemic darling stock favored by both retail and institutional a like. This has made for some concerning valuation multiples. The price/earnings ratio at 50 is ringing alarm bells, especially compared to Intel's P/E at 7. Even against other more direct peers, NVIDIA does look richly priced. AMD, for example, at a P/E of 38 is still comfortably behind. However, Nvidia boasts the highest margins in the semiconductor space, and revenue is growing exponentially at near 80% annually. The high relative multiple though is one of the key risks going forward, but with revenue growth and margins high NVIDIA should see its P/E reduce without impacting heavily on the share price performance. Indeed, with forward EPS guidance, the P/E for the next twelve months is trading at a more acceptable 31.

  Market Cap Gross margin FCF P/E EV/EBITDA P/book P/Sales EPS growth rate ROE
NVIDIA $451 billion 65% $8 billion 50 34 18 18 22% 45%
Broadcomm $225 billion 58% $14 billion 28 15 9 9 38% 28%
Qualcomm $153 billion 59% $7 billion 14 11 15 5 50% 113%
Intel $163 billion 54% $10 billion 7 5 2 2 -45% 23%
AMD $160 billion 47% $3 billion 38 32 16 8 47% 47%
Samsung $362 billion 40% $13 billion 10 4 1.5 1.5 24% 15%
S&P 500       20          
Nasdaq       25          

Source: TradingView, Refinitiv and FXStreet

Macroeconomic backdrop, market cycle and sector analysis

The global macroeconomic backdrop continues to look challenging. Supply chain issues remain unresolved, inflation remains elevated, and central banks have begun aggressive monetary tightening. The European Central Bank this week announced rate hikes for the remainder of the year. The Fed is already well down that path with another 50 basis point hike imminent, and the Bank of England has been alarmist about the threat of recession. We write in advance of June's US CPI release. While it may show signs of inflation slowing, the speed of the decline is unlikely to provide much comfort. 

Also read: Tesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries

Naturally, all this has meant equities remain in a challenging environment, and most indices are in bear market territory (defined as a peak to trough decline of 20% or more). The S&P 500 remains in a corrective phase, while the Nasdaq is in a bear market. 

Bear markets on average have losses of nearly 40% from peak valuations and an average time span of 300 days. This bear market should have more time to run then – another 20% approximately if it is to meet the historical average. The key question is whether or not the US economy will go into recession in 2023. Bear markets without accompanying recessions are notably less severe with average peak-to-trough declines of 25%. 

There is conflicting evidence from headline economic indicators as to the next stage in economic growth. Many forecasters are predicting the US and global recession in the first half of 2023. For now, US data is holding up relatively well. Employment markets remain tight, and workers are exercising their power to negotiate pay raises or are switching jobs. This helps underpin spending, which is a key driver of economic growth. The flip side is that this makes inflation more entrenched. We have also seen some recent upticks in credit card spending, and the personal savings rate has dropped to a decade low. Consumers are using pandemic savings to fuel consumption as well as credit, but as of yet the levels are not concerning.

The pace of change is a factor, and one can say with certainty that US and global economies are slowing. What is less clear is the recession forecast.

Semiconductor sector

The pandemic witnessed a perfect storm of sorts for the chip industry. Stay-at-home demand for work laptops, gaming stations and other PC equipment led to soaring chip demand and resultant shortages. As these bottlenecks unwound, we had continued demand from the aforementioned savings rates and pent-up demand. Semiconductor stocks were some of the best performing names of 2021 as a result. Demand has since flatlined, but supply chain issues have resurfaced meaning chip companies should be able to maintain and increase margins. The majority of chip makers stockpiled in a reactive move to the strong demand witnessed during the pandemic. While this demand may be flatlining, chip makers have inventory available at significantly lower input costs than the current surging inflationary selling costs.

Chip companies face yet another perfect storm, but this time on the supply side of the equation. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created a shortage of neon gas, which is critical in the production of semiconductor chips. Ukrainian steel plants under Russia's control produce half the world's supply of neon gas. This problem combined with further lockdowns imposed during the month of May in China has led to yet more shortages and fears over chip supply. This has become especially notable in the auto space. Reports have been circulating of auto manufacturers paying double or treble for chips in order to complete a $50,000 vehicle. The reason is scale. A laptop costing $500 requires the same $50 chip that a car costing $50,000 requires to complete its infotainment system or other features. Car companies are then hugely incentivized to outbid other customers for those chips. We expect chip shortages to yet again become an issue but would favor those with higher exposure to the auto sector: Nvidia is not a major supplier to auto companies. 

Nvidia latest news and earnings

The latest data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) expects the sector to grow 16% in 2022 and a more modest 5% in 2023. Intel (INTC) spoke this week at an investor conference and appeard to talk down projections for the coming quarter, citing multiple headwinds from China to inventory levels. 

Despite this downbeat analysis from Intel, NVDA reported earnings on May 25 that showed continued growth in revenue with a beat on EPS and revenue versus Wall Street estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.36 which beat estimates by $0.06 and was nearly 50% higher than previous while revenue growth was also nearing 50% yearly. However, the company sounded a more cautious approach on its outlook given headwinds from China and Russia. Nvidia scaled-back revenue and margins to slightly below Wall Street estimates but despite this NVDA stock did perform strongly post the results. 

The reasoning can be seen in the mix of revenue and strong sectoral performance across gaming and data center. Gaming revenues were up 30% yearly while data center revenues rose 83% yearly. NVDA has also taken steps in its adoption of the omniverse as it expects monetization of this space to accelerate in 2023. 

Nvidia valuation analysis and fair value

We run a standard DCF and EBITDA valuation model.

  NVIDIA free cash flows          
  2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
             
EBITDA 4,116 7,901 13,864 17,405 20,635 26,000
EBIT 3,735 6,803 12,690 16,019 19,144 21,689
Tax rate 7% 6% 2% 12% 13% 13%
             
EBIT (1-t) 3,818 7,421 13,600 15,269 18,032 22,655
D&A 381 1,098 1,174 1,302 1,304 3,138
Change in NWC -178 623 -12,364 -6,354 -11,960 -15,308
Capital expenditures 489 1,128 976 1,534 1,626 1,718
Unlevered free cash flows (UFCF) 4,510 10,270 3,386 11,751 9,001 12,202
Free cash flow forecasts 4,272 4,694 8,132 14,000 16,000 18,000
Discount rate (r)   10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
PV of UFCFs   9,243 3,048 10,576 8,101 10,982
PV of FCF   4,225 7,319 12,600 14,400 16,200
Stage 1: Sum of present values   41,949        
Sum of PV using FCF   54,743        
Growth in perpuatiy valuation  Using Forecast FCF   
growth rate                       10   10 10
2025 FCF              13,178              19,440            17,162
termival value in 2025          658,911            972,000          858,075
Present Value of Terminal Value          371,938            548,669          484,361
           
Enterprise value          413,887            603,412          534,812
           
current net debt -         10,262   -         10,262 -         10,262
           
shares outstanding              2,535                2,535              2,535
           
equity value                  $167                  $242                  $215
EBITDA Multiple approach        
ebitda multiple                        35                      25  
terminal value in 2025          910,000            650,000  
PV of term value          513,671            366,908  
           
ent value            555,621              421,651  
net debt              62,928              62,928  
shares outstanding              2,535                2,535  
equity value                        $194                  $142  

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet calculations

Running the numbers gives us various options to consider. Our main forecast model uses a 10% increase in revenues for 2023 over company forecasts and a resultant increase in margins. This leads us to a DCF price of $242, some $60 above the current NVDA stock price. However, our concern surrounds the high valuation currently placed on the shares. As mentioned NVDA trades on a P/E of 50, too high in our view to be sustainable.

Using the current EV/EBITDA multiple of 35 gives us a fair value of $194, but taking this EV/EBITDA ratio back to 25 gives a lowered price target of $156. This is more in line with sector peers and Nasdaq averages. As we can see below the 10-year average for EV/EBITDA is 28.51 for Nvidia. That would imply a fair value of $162.

It though will likely take some time for Nvidia to rerate to the sector average of 25 but it may settle at 30, giving us a fair price of $172. Combining this with our revenue forecasts gives us our average price target of $207. This obviously represents a premium to the current NVDA stock price and necessitates a BUY rating as a result.

Using the more standardized EPS approach and inputting our updated forecasts gives us EPS guidance of $6.22 for 2023. Trading at 50 times trailing P/E gives a price target of $300 but given we are uncomfortable with such a high P/E this updated EPS still results in a price target of $205 if the P/E falls to 32. The risk as can be seen below is if NVDA falls to the lower end of its historical P/E near 20. 

Source: Refinitiv

Based on all the above we run with a 12-month price target of $205 and a BUY rating. 

Nvidia technical analysis

How does this fit into the technical viewpoint? There is comforting support at $130 from the huge volume profile and consolidation zone that lasted from August 2020 until April 2021. This breakout was the pandemic-fueled demand combined with chip shortages. As we have highlighted shortages look set to continue. The recent earnings report has seen NVDA stock bottom and $205 looks modest but it is technical resistance at February to April lows. 

Nvidia price target and recommendation

The technical picture above gives us some comfort in the event that the downdraft and bear market continues. As detailed above with supply shortages and demand growth remaining strong, NVDA is in a strong position. We believe it has the inventory to cope with current supply issues and demand from the cloud sector will continue as remote working becomes embedded. This creates a permanent uptick in demand for home office, laptop and PC's as well as resultant gaming demand due to more leisure time. This is an immediate event and is not a 5-10 year thesis. The omniverse by comparison is a longer-term thesis and one we largely discounted from any calculation. So there is a form of free bet from the omniverse potential. 

Upside risks to our price target

  • Supply chain issues accelerate meaning increased price pressure and demand at any price from auto and tech companies.
  • Inflation reduces quickly.
  • Chinese demand is buoyed from loose monetary policy.
  • Omniverse acceleration and monetization.
  • Downside risks to our price target
  • The bear market continues with high valuation P/E stocks continued selling.
  • PC and laptop demand drop sharply as a result of recession and unemployment. The employment market is strong in US but Europe has headwinds.
  • Production grinds to a halt due to the neon gas shortage.

 

Nvidia reported earnings and forecast tables below, the foundation for all our DCF models. Data taken from Refinitiv (Reuters).

      HISTORICAL (ACTUALS) FORECAST (MEAN)    
  FY Jan-20 FY Jan-21 FY Jan-22 FY Jan-23 FY Jan-24 FY Jan-25
INCOME STATEMENT            
REVENUE 10918.000 16675.000 26914.000 33720.708 39355.898 45528.698
    Guidance T T T T - -
        AUTOMOTIVE 700.000 536.000 566.000 690.436 997.627 1163.450
        DATACENTER 2983.000 6696.000 10613.000 16918.150 21447.925 24567.600
        GAMING 5518.000 7759.000 12462.000 13193.075 13841.800 15089.700
        OEM AND IP 505.000 631.000 1162.000 673.382 654.127 726.700
        PROFESSIONAL VISUALIZATION 1212.000 1053.000 2111.000 2615.527 2915.836 3314.200
             
COST OF GOODS SOLD 4097.000 5728.000 8945.000 11063.923 12806.426 14547.100
GROSS INCOME 6821.000 10947.000 17969.000 22750.100 26794.211 30748.717
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN 62.500% 65.600% 66.760% 67.026% 67.690% 65.778%
    Guidance T T T - - -
             
SELLING & MARKETING EXPENSE - - - 2847.000 3627.000 4439.000
SG&A EXPENSE 828.000 1089.000 1893.000 1680.300 1940.083 2106.250
GENERAL & ADMIN EXPENSE - - 2166.000 2895.000 3525.000 3950.000
R&D EXPENSE 2289.000 3055.000 5249.000 5488.312 6316.627 7842.333
STOCK BASED COMPENSATION 844.000 1397.000 2004.000 2150.500 2236.700 2347.500
OPERATING EXPENSE 3086.000 4144.000 5279.000 6962.893 7957.456 9503.100
    Guidance 3,024:3,080 4,100 5,139:5,221 - - -
             
EBITDA 4116.000 7901.000 13864.000 17404.544 20635.190 23089.071
EBITDA PER SHARE 1.665 3.145 5.469 5.580 6.403 5.380
DEPRECIATION 355.000 486.000 611.000 1141.400 1206.800 1526.000
EBITA 2728.000 4532.000 10041.000 10741.000 11344.000 12020.000
AMORTIZATION 25.000 612.000 563.000 356.333 410.000 1391.000
DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION 381.000 1098.000 1174.000 1302.000 1303.733 3137.500
             
EBIT 3735.000 6803.000 12690.000 16019.194 19143.624 21689.011
OPERATING PROFIT - 4532.000 - 12086.317 11548.200 -
INTEREST EXPENSE 52.000 184.000 236.000 229.765 223.688 246.333
             
PRE-TAX PROFIT 3860.000 6683.000 12494.000 15062.152 18292.946 20465.648
TAX PROVISION 280.000 406.000 189.000 1883.173 2299.192 2634.783
TAX RATE 7.250% 6.080% 1.901% 12.270% 12.617% 12.867%
             
NET INCOME 3580.000 6277.000 11259.000 13771.766 16442.788 18890.257
NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING 2472.000 2512.000 2535.000 2545.939 2545.969 2612.566
             
EARNINGS PER SHARE 1.448 2.500 4.440 5.430 6.448 7.523
EBITDA REPORTED 3227.000 6041.000 11860.000 13952.000 16273.033 17144.865
PRE-TAX PROFIT REPORTED 2970.000 4409.000 9941.000 10489.767 14498.144 18797.066
NET INCOME REPORTED 2796.000 4332.000 9752.000 9971.386 13776.212 15991.441
EARNINGS PER SHARE REPORTED 1.130 1.725 3.850 3.960 5.431 6.348
DIVIDEND PER SHARE 0.160 0.160 - 0.175 0.233 0.200
    Guidance T - - - - -
BALANCE SHEET            
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 10896.000 847.000 1990.000 17750.847 27758.687 25785.000
INVENTORY 979.000 1826.000 2605.000 2970.894 3391.938 4117.000
CURRENT ASSETS 13690.000 16055.000 28829.000 36284.263 48378.400 65243.500
TOTAL ASSETS 17315.000 28791.000 44187.000 51812.619 64515.388 81997.500
CURRENT LIABILITIES 1784.000 3925.000 4335.000 5436.663 5570.307 7127.000
CURRENT DEFERRED REVENUE 141.000 288.000 300.000 2552.000 2552.000 -
TOTAL DEBT 1991.000 6963.000 10946.000 10946.500 10946.500 -
NET DEBT -8906.000 6116.000 -10262.000 -15275.726 -21666.297 -26814.472
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 12204.000 16893.000 26612.000 33893.982 45418.682 54473.863
GOODWILL 618.000 4193.000 4349.000 4347.909 4347.909 4365.000
NET ASSET VALUE 12204.000 16893.000 26612.000 32997.888 44388.729 51557.000
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE 4.985 6.813 10.645 13.420 17.467 19.283
TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE PER SHARE 4.713 4.018 7.970 11.583 16.968 -
ENTERPRISE VALUE 133273.840 328261.800 610458.100 440116.927 432357.433 426161.656
TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE 11537.000 9963.000 19924.000 27104.085 38030.482 -
CASH FLOW STATEMENT            
NET WORKING CAPITAL 11906.000 12130.000 24494.000 - - -
INCOME TAXES PAID 176.000 249.000 396.000 - - -
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS 4761.000 5822.000 9108.000 13437.947 16799.471 18863.833
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 489.000 1128.000 976.000 1533.649 1626.453 1718.288
CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING 6145.000 -19675.000 -9830.000 -65.167 -2215.000 -4795.500
FREE CASH FLOW 4272.000 4694.000 8132.000 12192.153 15147.902 15890.278
FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE 1.720 1.868 3.210 4.878 6.302 5.645
TOTAL DIVIDENDS 390.000 395.000 399.000 567.656 630.989 395.000
CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING -792.000 3804.000 1865.000 -6149.492 -6162.990 -3943.000
CASH FLOW PER SHARE 1.925 2.318 3.590 5.672 6.555 7.330
VALUATION METRICS            
RETURN ON ASSETS 23.390% 27.230% 30.859% 25.989% 33.445% -
RETURN ON EQUITY 33.230% 77.830% 51.759% 39.932% 42.342% 42.610%
RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED 24.050% 27.360% 31.839% 28.400% 28.000% -
RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL 104.760% 52.030% 77.614% 38.945% 43.815% 22.510%
PRICE/SALES RATIO - - 19.300% 14.290% 14.050% 12.970%

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