NVDA earnings preview: NVIDIA presses key resistance as Nasdaq watches

NVDA heads into the February 25 earnings release capped below a multi-month upper gate, with a sustained break above 191–193 needed to open a move toward 195–200.

NVIDIA (NVDA) heads into Wednesday’s February 25 earnings release at a key technical decision zone, with price once again testing the 191–193 resistance band that has capped multiple recovery attempts since late December 2025.

The stock remains in a two-way structure that has controlled price action since early October 2025. A late-October move into the upper range failed to hold, triggering a broader rotation that carried price back into the lower structure by late November. Since then, NVDA has recovered several times, but each push into the upper gate has struggled to gain acceptance.

That repeated rejection keeps the focus on structural rather than response, not just momentum.

NVDA technical structure remains capped below the upper gate

The current chart map shows a clear framework into earnings:

• Key resistance/upper gate: 191–193
• Immediate pivot/support zone: 190–187
• Upside references on breakout acceptance: 195, 197, 200
• Downside path on rejection: rotation back through pivot support and into the lower structure

Price is now pressing the same upper boundary again. In a pre-earnings setup, that typically signals a decision point rather than a confirmed breakout.

The main question is not whether NVDA can briefly trade above resistance, but whether it can hold above it after the initial earnings volatility.

Earnings reaction matters more than the first move

Earnings-related price action often produces sharp gaps and quick overshoots, which means the first reaction is not always the final directional signal.

A move above 191–193 that fails to hold would still fit the same rotational pattern seen in recent weeks. By contrast, a sustained hold above the upper gate would signal improving acceptance and shift attention toward the upper range references at 195, 197, and potentially 200.

If the post-earnings move fails and price loses the 190–187 support/pivot zone, the probability increases for another rotation back into the lower structure.

NVDA earnings could shape broader Nasdaq sentiment

NVIDIA remains one of the most influential components in the Nasdaq complex, so its post-earnings response may also affect broader tech sentiment and index tone.

That matters in the current environment because the Nasdaq itself is trading in a sensitive structure, making NVDA’s reaction a potential short-term trigger for broader risk appetite.

For now, the technical map remains straightforward: 191–193 is the key battlefield. A break alone is not enough — the market needs to show acceptance above resistance to confirm a structural shift.

Structure defines context; price reveals response.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Earnings-related volatility can be elevated, and market conditions may change rapidly.