Mexico: Lower growth and inflation in 2023, Banxico to decouple from the Fed – BBVA

Matías Salord FXStreet

On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico rose the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 10.5%, following the same hike from the Federal Reserve. According to the Research Department at BBVA, Banxico will decouple from the Fed in 2023 and they see lower growth and inflation in Mexico.

Key Quotes:

“We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effect of nearshoring.”

“November will mark the peak of core inflation; headline inflation is already declining. We are more optimistic than the consensus for 2023.”

“We anticipate that Banxico will decouple from the Fed in 2023; we expect the start of a rate cut cycle by the third quarter of next year.”

“We expect the exchange rate will be 19.6 pesos per dollar by December 2022 and 20.1 pesos per dollar by the end of 2023.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

GBP/USD weakens below 1.3250 as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3245 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom continues to weigh on the British Pound against the US Dollar. The preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index from both the US and the UK are due later on Tuesday.

EUR/USD moves little amid market caution on ongoing US-Iran talks

EUR/USD steadies after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair remains locked in a tight range as traders closely monitor diplomatic developments surrounding ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.

Gold holds lower ground near $4,150 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and edges lower to near $4,150 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Firming expectations for a Fed rate hike and geopolitical uncertainties help the US Dollar to stand firm near its highest level since May 2025, undermining bullion.

Ethereum: Ethlabs launches as new ecosystem steward funded by BitMine, SharpLink

Ethereum treasuries BitMine Immersion and SharpLink, alongside co-founder Joe Lubin, have partnered to fund Ethlabs, a new research and development lab for the smart contract blockchain.

Are American consumers actually “resilient“?

A common label gets placed upon American buyers: resilient. Just last week, Marianne Lake, the CEO of Consumer and Community Banking — and a member of the JPMorganChase Operating Committee — affirmed this sentiment. While she did note some weariness regarding future inflation’s effect on consumers, she reiterated the common adjective: resilient.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.