LME Aluminium tom-next spread rises – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

LME Aluminium prices extended the upward rally for an eighth consecutive session, with prices closing well above US$2,700/t (the highest level since 20 February 2025) yesterday, driven by expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this week and a weaker dollar index (the lowest level since 2022), ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Money managers increase their net long position in Copper

"The Aluminium tom-next spread traded at a premium of US$13.25/t (the highest since August 2024) yesterday, after remaining in contango for several weeks, indicating rising physical demand and tightening LME inventories."

"Recent LME data shows that Aluminium exchange stocks fell by 1,500 tonnes to 483,375 tonnes, while on-warrant inventories continued to hover at lower levels and stood at 375,025 tonnes (the lowest since 7 July 2025) as of yesterday. Turning to the speculative bets, the latest COTR report shows that net bullish bets in Aluminium rose by 4,562 lots for a fourth straight week to 131,922 lots for the week ending 12 September, the most bullish bets since the week ending on 7 June 2024."

"In other metals, money managers increased their net long position in Copper by 2,597 lots for a third consecutive week to 56,390 lots at the end of last week. In contrast, speculators decreased their net long position in Zinc by 1,654 lots to 33,066 lots as of last Friday."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD sits at two-month lows near 0.6950 after Australian CPI data

AUD/USD is sitting at two-month lows near 0.6950 in the Asian session on Wednesday, as below-expectations August Australian underlying CPI data pours cold water on expectations for further RBA interest rate hikes. Chinese PMI data also fail to inspire the Australian Dollar, despite a pause in the US Dollar advance.

USD/JPY stays weak below 157.00 amid Japanese intervention risks

USD/JPY keeps losses below 157.00 in the Asian session on Wednesday, as hawkish BoJ expectations, along with intervention risks, underpin the Japanese Yen, countering dismal domestic factory output and retail sales data. Meanwhile, a broad US Dollar retreat also collaborates to the pair's downside.

Gold flat lines below $4,200, as focus shifts to US ADP and PCE

Gold extends its consolidative price move in the European session, trading near the $4,200 mark. Falling US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the two-month high, touched on Tuesday, and act as a tailwind for the commodity. However, hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations cap the upside as traders await important US macro data before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin consolidates below $85,000 amid rising US Treasury yields, derivatives deleveraging

Bitcoin consolidates near $83,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday after bulls failed to close above the key $85,000 level earlier this week. The Crypto King's investors remain cautious amid rising US Treasury yields and several key macroeconomic data releases due this week.

US core PCE inflation set to rise in August, pressuring the Federal Reserve

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data for August on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Market participants closely watch the PCE Price Index because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could influence its policy outlook.

Silver is more volatile than Gold ahead of PCE and NFP. This chart shows the positioning gap

The market’s attention is focused on American data this week, but there’s something only those with a trained eye may be looking at: Gold and Silver positioning gap. Financial markets are moving on fears, mostly related to persistently high energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Sure, the US Dollar (USD) is strong, but at what cost?