JPY: Bullish outlook despite intervention – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

BBH's analysis suggests a bullish outlook for the JPY, regardless of potential intervention from the US. The report notes that USD/JPY is significantly overvalued relative to US-Japan rate differentials, and concerns over Japan's fiscal policy are considered overdone. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy is seen as positive for the JPY.

Bullish sentiment on JPY persists

"Bessent emphasized yesterday that the US is “absolutely not” intervening in the currency market to weaken USD/JPY and reaffirmed the Treasury’s strong dollar policy. USD/JPY had a kneejerk 1% upswing before pulling back. We remain bullish on JPY regardless of whether there is intervention or not."

"First, USD/JPY is significantly overvalued relative to the level implied by US-Japan rate differentials. Second, worries over Japan fiscal profligacy are overdone given that growth comfortably exceeds borrowing costs. Third, Japan’s mix of loose fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy is JPY positive."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD slides as US yields jump before pivotal CPI

The Australian Dollar ended Thursday’s session with a 0.80% loss against the US Dollar after US producer inflation exceeded estimates, triggering pricing for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7159 after reaching a peak of 0.7223.

USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold remains weak, retargets $4,350

Gold keeps the choppy price action on Thursday, now slipping back toward the $4,350 region per troy ounce amid the robust bounce in the US Dollar as well as rising US Treasury yields across the curve, particularly following US Producer Prices and ahead of Friday’s more relevant US CPI data.

Bitcoin holds steady on positive ETF flows despite short-term holders cashing in

Bitcoin's exchange-traded funds (ETF) demand regime has notably shifted, with 30-day net inflows reaching $21.9 billion, according to a Thursday post by CryptoQuant. The data suggests that the average Bitcoin held through spot ETFs is now in profit, with the realized price of the ETF cohort standing at roughly $72,000 to $73,000.

ECB recap: A hawkish hike despite downside growth risks

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.50%, the Refinancing Rate to 2.65% and the Marginal Lending Facility to 2.90%, effective from September 16. The decision was accompanied by a clear warning that the outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks tilted to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.