Indonesia: Economy seen expanding 4.5%-5.3% in 2023 – UOB

Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, assesses the outlook for the economic growth in Indonesia for the current year.

Key Takeaways

“Economic growth in 2022 in all regions of Indonesia posted an increase from the previous year. The highest economic growth was recorded in the Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua (Sulampua) region with growth at 7.49% (y/y), followed by Java at 5.31% (y/y), Bali-Nusa Tenggara (Balinusra) at 5.08% (y/y), Kalimantan at 4.94% (y/y), and Sumatra at 4.69% (y/y).”

“Sumatra's economy is estimated to grow within the range of 4-4.8% in 2023; Java’s economy within the range of 4.8-5.6%; Kalimantan's economy in the range of 3.5-4.3%, lower than previous growth; Balinusra’s economy in the range of 4.5-5.3%; Sulampua’s economy within the range of 7.2-8%.”

“Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 is estimated to be within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target of 4.5-5.3%. Nevertheless, there are a number of risks that could potentially inhibit growth this year such as the cumulative impact of aggressive global monetary policy tightening, slower than expected economic recovery in China, and rising global uncertainty that might hold back foreign investment and render inflation to remain high and elevated due to prolonged supply chain disruptions.”